stock market watch

[old guy]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or so

[rckirby]

You just keep telling yourself that, if it makes you feel better.

[Stantz]

My 401K unfortunately still looks like this:
http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Business/images-2/tumbleweed-through-ghost-town.jpg

[callufrax]

Don't forget the current out of control spending, and the creation of a trillion dollars out of thin air. Sooner or later, the economy's going to collapse like a house of cards. It's unsustainable.

[Charlie A]

I'm waiting for a good time to move everything to metals and commodities, but now is not the time. Perhaps in 6 months.

I was long bond funds up until the Dow was flirting with 6K, then I piled into stocks. I think a lot of people did that and now we're anticipating productivity increases due to all the layoffs. I think those will probably not outweigh inflation in the long run, but at the moment the herd mentality is driving the market.

[fava]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or so

The stock market is people betting on the future of individual companies much like the commodity market is betting on the future of oil. Oil is also rising. What does it say about the economy?
Your premise is false.

[Charlie A]

My 401K unfortunately still looks like this:
http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Business/images-2/tumbleweed-through-ghost-town.jpg

Hmmm...

The Tumbleweed Fund. A capital depreciation fund focusing on maximizing exposure to high-risk investments with a solid history of turning princes into paupers. See our prospector for details.

[Save the Party]

Commodities and absolutes are the safe havens in inflation. We will see people move to stocks that are reflective of value as well as companies who produce things we need, not just want.

Food..so commodities corn, soybeans, wheat, hogs and cattle
Food inputs so you will see fertilizer producers, farm machinery, seed, chemicals
Fuel...oil, heating oil and natural gas
Drugs

Then the current admin will demonize investors who look to inflation protecting investments and call us speculators.

What crap.

And to the orig OP....your hope is sad and your premise no more than grasping at any straw to prop up your misplaced faith in this madman in the whitehouse.

[Charlie A]

Commodities and absolutes are the safe havens in inflation. We will see people move to stocks that are reflective of value as well as companies who produce things we need, not just want.

Food..so commodities corn, soybeans, wheat, hogs and cattle
Food inputs so you will see fertilizer producers, farm machinery, seed, chemicals
Fuel...oil, heating oil and natural gas
Drugs

Then the current admin will demonize investors who look to inflation protecting investments and call us speculators.

What crap.

And to the orig OP....your hope is sad and your premise no more than grasping at any straw to prop up your misplaced faith in this madman in the whitehouse.

I would agree with you except that the nonsense coming out of the White House will purely be for domestic consumption. If commodities trading were considerably more strictly regulated and profits heavily taxed, Chicago would practically go out of business.

[Dadda]

Commodities and absolutes are the safe havens in inflation. We will see people move to stocks that are reflective of value as well as companies who produce things we need, not just want.

Food..so commodities corn, soybeans, wheat, hogs and cattle
Food inputs so you will see fertilizer producers, farm machinery, seed, chemicals
Fuel...oil, heating oil and natural gas
Drugs

Then the current admin will demonize investors who look to inflation protecting investments and call us speculators.

What crap.

And to the orig OP....your hope is sad and your premise no more than grasping at any straw to prop up your misplaced faith in this madman in the whitehouse.

Drugs for the aging baby boomers. The only problem there is they will likely be in Obama's sights soon with rising medical costs. More people will have to depend on generics - 20-year old medicines.

[Blemonds]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or soYou seem to have some bad information. The high for the DOW this year is 9034.69 and it currently stands at 8799.26, 235 points lower than the high

[JohnRandolph]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or so

I wish that your contention were true. Its not, but I wish it was.

In the months following Oct 1929 the market fluctuated and even rebounded some.
Then all those government programs started by Hoover (though FDR got the credit) to rescue the economy and regulate the wild speculations in the markets started to kick in. Ooops down the crapper she went. The same road being taken today. Hyper inflation and a failure of other countries to continue to buy our debts is the real future.

The right road, is the one taken by Harding following WWI.

[MADMAX]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or so


I think you pulled out your poms poms a bit too early.

[B' en Natuf]

Greedy speculators driving up the price of stocks on the backs of the hard working Americans who rightfully own the wealth by the sweat of their brow!

[nunyadb]

Greedy speculators driving up the price of stocks on the backs of the hard working Americans who rightfully own the wealth by the sweat of their brow!

Damn B'en, that was pretty good.
You've been practicing haven't you ?

[coolidge]

The stock market is displaying a false sense of security. Unemployment is still trending up.

[B' en Natuf]

Damn B'en, that was pretty good.
You've been practicing haven't you ?It's hard to wrap your mind around, but I figure I better be able to recite the mantras... no telling when I might need one to get away!

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

I think you pulled out your poms poms a bit too early.

Aren't you and the OP setting yourself up to look bad. After all, none of us really know where it's going. It may be rolling over. Here's a simple line chart. I've added a big thick red line from the lows in March to current (including today). What do you think the trend is?

[nunyadb]

It's hard to wrap your mind around, but I figure I better be able to recite the mantras... no telling when I might need one to get away!

Can't say as I blame you.
I live far enough out in the sticks that we won't have to worry about that stuff
for a while. But I think I'll take a page out of your book and see if I can learn to
sound like one of the "true believers" out there.

What gets me is that dem congress and the Pres are killing this nation and these
people refuse to see it, much less believe it. Astonishing what people are capable
of in that dept. when you think about it.

[The Great One]

lol, I remember Bush touting about the economy during his administration. He took all the credit when the market went up 200 points and it happened often. However, he didn't realize that all the investments people were making, which propped up the markets, were a result of inflated house, bond and CDO prices that were eventually worth nothing. And I love that Hard-core Republicans, who know nothing about the market, would give him credit for every good piece of economic news from 2000 to 2006. The point is that no decision or speech is going to make the market go up or down. Its going to occur because of trends. I can tell you that the market is probably going to go down in the next 2 monthes because gas prices will go up significantly. And you can count on it. It will have nothing to do with Obama or Bush or anybody.

[B' en Natuf]

Can't say as I blame you.
I live far enough out in the sticks that we won't have to worry about that stuff
for a while. But I think I'll take a page out of your book and see if I can learn to
sound like one of the "true believers" out there.

What gets me is that dem congress and the Pres are killing this nation and these
people refuse to see it, much less believe it. Astonishing what people are capable
of in that dept. when you think about it.When they have finished spreading the wealth to the extent that "poverty" as they define it is a comfortable existance and there is no more wealth to spread or borrow... what will they do to placate those who demand their entitlement?

[redfish64]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or so

didn't the stock market take a dive today over 200 points? What planet are you on? Everyone and their grandmother knew this was a suckers rally, or a bear rally to sucker in people and then cash out. You honestly think Obama can print trillions of dollars and nothing happen? When Bush left office the debt was 526 billion dollars. Obama is less than a year into office and we are over 11 trillion. Don't worry your bill will be in the mail soon.

[The Great One]

Can't say as I blame you.
I live far enough out in the sticks that we won't have to worry about that stuff
for a while. But I think I'll take a page out of your book and see if I can learn to
sound like one of the "true believers" out there.

What gets me is that dem congress and the Pres are killing this nation and these
people refuse to see it, much less believe it. Astonishing what people are capable
of in that dept. when you think about it.

Its just too bad Bush lost all the credibility Republicans had and people like Palin won't get it back. Anyway, the problem with Bush is that he did too much in some areas and notthing in others. For example, he attacked Iran and Afghanistan as well as tortured for the sake of the War on Terror, but he did nothing to protect our boarders or ports (neither will the democrats). He was just too right-wing on some beleifs and not right-wing enough on others.

[LibHunter]

I said the hell with it and cashed in a little of what little I had left in my IRA and bought a HUD house for $29,000 (appraised at $126,000 2 years ago and $69,000 for my closing)

I also added 6 grand for rehab with a 203K FHA mort. for a house payment of a whopping $285 a month. I can sit here for 5 or 10 or 15 years and wait for home prices to come back. In the mean time I'm looking for a nice lot in the country I can pick up cheap while the market is bad. When I retire in 15 years I'll sell my house, plop a modular on my lot and retire dirt cheap.

My new philosophy is not to make more but to spend less.

[nunyadb]

I said the hell with it and cashed in a little of what little I had left in my IRA and bought a HUD house for $29,000 (appraised at $126,000 2 years ago and $69,000 for my closing)

I also added 6 grand for rehab with a 203K FHA mort. for a house payment of a whopping $285 a month. I can sit here for 5 or 10 or 15 years and wait for home prices to come back. In the mean time I'm looking for a nice lot in the country I can pick up cheap while the market is bad. When I retire in 15 years I'll sell my house, plop a modular on my lot and retire dirt cheap.

My new philosophy is not to make more but to spend less.

Check land prices in central and northern Louisiana.
You can still get an acre for around 3K or so in a lot of areas.
Same for central Mississippi. Arkansas ain't too bad either.

[The Great One]

didn't the stock market take a dive today over 200 points? What planet are you on? Everyone and their grandmother knew this was a suckers rally, or a bear rally to sucker in people and then cash out. You honestly think Obama can print trillions of dollars and nothing happen? When Bush left office the debt was 526 billion dollars. Obama is less than a year into office and we are over 11 trillion. Don't worry your bill will be in the mail soon.

11 trillion is what the deficit is now. Obama did not spend and will not spend 11 trillion dollars in 1 year or the next 4. He might, but I don't know if that is what's being projected right now.

[mydadsamuslimatheist]

lol, I remember Bush touting about the economy during his administration. He took all the credit when the market went up 200 points and it happened often. However, he didn't realize that all the investments people were making, which propped up the markets, were a result of inflated house, bond and CDO prices that were eventually worth nothing. And I love that Hard-core Republicans, who know nothing about the market, would give him credit for every good piece of economic news from 2000 to 2006. The point is that no decision or speech is going to make the market go up or down. Its going to occur because of trends. I can tell you that the market is probably going to go down in the next 2 monthes because gas prices will go up significantly. And you can count on it. It will have nothing to do with Obama or Bush or anybody.
This is one of the most uneducated, uninformed statements that I have ever heard !!!

1) Bush never took public credit for anything ! thats what the political pundits are for !
2) The markets were propped artificially (true), but 60% of the problem was giving houses to people that the gubment knew couldnt afford ! Thank you Bawney Fwank and Chris dodd and maxine Waters !!
3) If you dont think a speech can move the market then you need to sniff some more !!
If Obama comes on and confirms that he is cutting back on Nuke defense ! well, some of the largest Defense companies will have millions (in one day) taken from their MARKETCAP! Same goes for banks (i.e.) Banks skyrocket if mark-to-market is adjusted or uptick rule is changed ! And so on !!!
Markets dont just simply go down because gas goes up !! What the hell is that !!
Gas goes up, half the market goes up !! You know>> oil companies, gas companies,refineries, etc !!!

This market is going to go down because this country is borrowing and printing money that we have no chance of paying back in the next 30 years !
The market is going to go down because of Obamas weakness on Defense which will affect oil prices, defense industries and such !
The market is going to go down because the unemployment rate is going to go to 12%
Its going to go down because the commercial housing bubble is yet to burst ! and when it does, its going to be a doozy because we either 1) dont have any more money to bail them out or 2) Barry will just print some more ! Either way, we are screwed !!
Its going to go down because the confidence in Obama having any clue as to what he is doing is fading !!

SO, in retrospect, your statement was complete HOGWASH !

[spinach]

11 trillion is what the deficit is now. Obama did not spend and will not spend 11 trillion dollars in 1 year or the next 4. He might, but I don't know if that is what's being projected right now.


the CBO has stated the projected numbers quite a bit.
they are always LOW. They always make it more rosy than it is.

and hussein obama and the sunni democraps have indeed set in stone spending that is greater than all the deficit spending TOTAL to date.

Their plans as it stands now is at least 12 trillion extra DEFICIT, by the CBO.
as the economy moves worse, that number is going to DRAMATICALLY increase.

deficit spending in a recession is patent suicide.
the voters are going to get the national death they voted for on Nov 4 2008

[MADMAX]

Aren't you and the OP setting yourself up to look bad. After all, none of us really know where it's going. It may be rolling over. Here's a simple line chart. I've added a big thick red line from the lows in March to current (including today). What do you think the trend is?

The market is up from its low, so what? That is usually what happens after a huge sell off. However, nothing has really changed since March. Yes, job losses have slowed but the fundamentals of the economy have not changed. The economy is still in the crapper and hope and change with a little yes we can isn't going to fix that.

The market rebounded several times during the great depression to only crash again.

[mydadsamuslimatheist]

The market is up from its low, so what? That is usually what happens after a huge sell off. However, nothing has really changed since March. Yes, job losses have slowed but the fundamentals of the economy have not changed. The economy is still in the crapper and hope and change with a little yes we can isn't going to fix that.

The market rebounded several times during the great depression to only crash again.
Job losses have to slow ! Eventually you run out of jobs to lose !!
Kinda like a massive flood !! If you have 6 feet of water in the street and it runs into the sewers, well, eventually the water stops flowing into the sewer because all the water is gone !! But everything that the water flooded out is now worthless !! Obama is clueless, but it doesnt matter because his objective has nothing to do with fixing the economy

[The Great One]

This is one of the most uneducated, uninformed statements that I have ever heard !!!

1) Bush never took public credit for anything ! thats what the political pundits are for !
2) The markets were propped artificially (true), but 60% of the problem was giving houses to people that the gubment knew couldnt afford ! Thank you Bawney Fwank and Chris dodd and maxine Waters !!
3) If you dont think a speech can move the market then you need to sniff some more !!
If Obama comes on and confirms that he is cutting back on Nuke defense ! well, some of the largest Defense companies will have millions (in one day) taken from their MARKETCAP! Same goes for banks (i.e.) Banks skyrocket if mark-to-market is adjusted or uptick rule is changed ! And so on !!!
Markets dont just simply go down because gas goes up !! What the hell is that !!
Gas goes up, half the market goes up !! You know>> oil companies, gas companies,refineries, etc !!!

This market is going to go down because this country is borrowing and printing money that we have no chance of paying back in the next 30 years !
The market is going to go down because of Obamas weakness on Defense which will affect oil prices, defense industries and such !
The market is going to go down because the unemployment rate is going to go to 12%
Its going to go down because the commercial housing bubble is yet to burst ! and when it does, its going to be a doozy because we either 1) dont have any more money to bail them out or 2) Barry will just print some more ! Either way, we are screwed !!
Its going to go down because the confidence in Obama having any clue as to what he is doing is fading !!

SO, in retrospect, your statement was complete HOGWASH !

1. Bush takes credit for the economy.
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2003-11/a-2003-11-25-5-Bush.cfm?moddate=2003-11-25
2. Oh 60% was Barney Frank and the Democrats. Where did you come up with that figure? Noticed you didn't mention Bush and other Republicans who made it easier for mortgage companies to give loans that people couldn't afford. Just blame the othe side right. Also, why didn't companies realize for themselves that the loans they were giving might go into default? Because they were making alot of money giving out loans that people couldn't afford. They didn't have to follow the governemnt in giving loans to people with bad credit. There were alot of companies that had employees who went to management and said that bad loans were being given out. People were fired when they persisted. Ratings agency were threatened if they didn't back loan that were obviously worthless.
3. Your right. I exaggerated the point. But many partisan jerks like to blame everything on speeches. They just did a study that said presidential speeches generally have little effect on the trend of the economy, which is what I was trying to say. Now an Anthony Mozillo speech is definately going to effect the market significantly and your right there.

[The Great One]

the CBO has stated the projected numbers quite a bit.
they are always LOW. They always make it more rosy than it is.

and hussein obama and the sunni democraps have indeed set in stone spending that is greater than all the deficit spending TOTAL to date.

Their plans as it stands now is at least 12 trillion extra DEFICIT, by the CBO.
as the economy moves worse, that number is going to DRAMATICALLY increase.

deficit spending in a recession is patent suicide.
the voters are going to get the national death they voted for on Nov 4 2008

Yeah but that's not what you or another person said in that post. I read a comment that compared Bush's one year deficit with the total debt of Obama's spending in 4 or 8 years. Bush spent around 8 trillion during his time in office. Obama has spent 2 trillion. Let's see where it goes before we start comparing numbers.

[Manager]

i just wanted to mention for everyone predicting the end of the america,the destruction of the economy etc....
The stock market is now higher for the year. the dow,$p and nasdaq are all higher on the year now.

maybe the economy is turning around since the markets tend to lead the economy by 6 months or so

We haven't seen the worst of the housing yet, wait til the 9 million ARMs adjust this year and you know every single one of those mortgages are underwater.

If housing does not turn upwards our economy will not turn in the right direction.

95% of stocks in the DOW have lost 50+% since the highs in Sept '07. 12 trillion in equity investments, and 10 trillion in real estate lost in the last 20 months.

Inflation just around the corner.

Nothing good about our economy as I can see for long time...

[B' en Natuf]

Yeah but that's not what you or another person said in that post. I read a comment that compared Bush's one year deficit with the total debt of Obama's spending in 4 or 8 years. Bush spent around 8 trillion during his time in office. Obama has spent 2 trillion. Let's see where it goes before we start comparing numbers.Your numbers are a tad bit off. Obama has racked up a 2 TRILLION dollat deficit this year alone... thats just the deficit, he's actually spent about 3.6 Trillion. And thats not even a whole damned year.

[spinach]

Yeah but that's not what you or another person said in that post. I read a comment that compared Bush's one year deficit with the total debt of Obama's spending in 4 or 8 years. Bush spent around 8 trillion during his time in office. Obama has spent 2 trillion. Let's see where it goes before we start comparing numbers.
'
there's nothing to compare.
presidents don't spend money.

the congress does.

the democrat congress in hussein obamas term to date, has incurred a larger deficit than the GOP congress incurred under Bush.

in addition, the democrap loons have already set in stone spending that will more than double the total national debt.

you can't get around the facts.
the democrap congress has incurred a greater deficit than all the previous congresses added together

[PSBandit]

Boooooooosh.

[Long Island Bob]

Yeah but that's not what you or another person said in that post. I read a comment that compared Bush's one year deficit with the total debt of Obama's spending in 4 or 8 years. Bush spent around 8 trillion during his time in office. Obama has spent 2 trillion. Let's see where it goes before we start comparing numbers.

Hmm
- $3.67 trillion in his 2010 budget and a
- $787b porkulus, and a
- $375 b second half of TARP, and a
- $1.2 Trillion bond buyback and a
- $275 b mortgage bailout and a
- $1 Trillion Toxic asset buy up program and a
- $200 billion TALF

let's see that equals . . . .

[Getty Girl]

It's hard to wrap your mind around, but I figure I better be able to recite the mantras... no telling when I might need one to get away!


:clap::clap:

[cbc]

Hmm
- $3.67 trillion in his 2010 budget and a
- $787b porkulus, and a
- $375 b second half of TARP, and a
- $1.2 Trillion bond buyback and a
- $275 b mortgage bailout and a
- $1 Trillion Toxic asset buy up program and a
- $200 billion TALF

let's see that equals . . . .
OUCH.....7.507 TRILLION dollars.... change you can believe in.

[nunyadb]

And now you start to see what we've been seeing.
It's absolutely mind boggling when you consider that amount of
added debt that has no chance of ever having any real tangible asset value.


7.5 TRILLION dollars of Pure Debt.

Now THAT'S "chains you can believe in".

[redfish64]

11 trillion is what the deficit is now. Obama did not spend and will not spend 11 trillion dollars in 1 year or the next 4. He might, but I don't know if that is what's being projected right now.

Obama has spent almost two TRILLION dollars already and healthcare is expected to cost 1.8 trillion to 3 trillion. The 11 trillion in debt accounts for interest rate on that debt. What do you think it will be when you include the trillions in healthcare?

[samsaysit]

Dear Mr. Old Guy, some facts for you to ponder, especially if you are long the market at this point;

There are about three more shoes to come off this millepede economy of the US. Here they are;

Commercial Real Estate- there are about $600 billion of loans about to crash as the developers cannot pay them off and the property values are inverted to a point where they won´t be able to refinance either. The second largest mall owner in the world declared bankruptcy on April 6th and there are a lot more headed to the same courts across the country.

Consumer Credit- highest level of delinquencies on about $7 trillion of outstanding debt (well above 16%) and we are headed higher on this one as job losses impact consumers ability to pay. This is also linked into that great huge ATM called Home Equity Loans which are just now starting to have some cracks as the banks who opened the doors through this means of lending start to tighten up on these loan holders and force them to pay the loans off or face foreclosure.

Second round of mortgage defaults/foreclosures due to ARM resets. Starting in September of this year in excess of $500 billion of ARM loans will reset. Another close to $700 billion will reset in 2010 and about $800 billion in 2011. Banks cannot manage this and the people who owe on these loans are going to find they will not be able to afford the new payments due to the hike in rate and now, some are facing a lost income earner or both who were responsible for the mortgage payments.

Inflation (which will include rising commodity prices for most of the world)- I don´t have to say much about this one, just watch everything you have to spend money on to support your life and you will know when this ugly animal is out of the box and eating at your life style and earnings.

The market rise to date is based on facts you most likely have no clue about. First and foremost, bear market rallies usually take their toll on guys like you. Secondly, nothing goes in straight lines in the markets and so, bounces happen all the time, some bounces are higher at times because of where the ball was dropped from but, as time goes on, unless there is some real energy to keep the ball bouncing, each bounce gets a bit weaker until finally the ball stops. That is what is occuring now so, don´t get taken into the hype on TV and believe that the economy is getting better just because there is a bounce or two.Take it from a trader Mr. Old Guy, there are no fundamentals or "green shoots" to support the market. The indices are up because fund managers have to get out of T bills and get some kind of returns on the money they are responsible for and it is June. They have to put the money into the markets but, as soon as they can get any kind of return, no matter where they have put the money, they book the profit/return so that they have something to report to their clients in the way of a return and to justify their fees and bonuses. For now, they are ten percenters. That means if they get 10% on any position they put on, they will take it and run. The volatility in the markets shows it. All you have to do is trace any upward move and watch as soon as you can measure around 10% on any particular move or position, it will start to come under selling pressure.

The real problem is at some point not too far from now, this is going to turn out to be more than a traders´market and the fundamentals are going to weigh in on everyone´s head. Those fundamentals point towards a very anemic economy, a long slog to recovery, lower earnings for most companies and ultimately, the negative effects of all the deficiet spending being done at the moment on top of the bailouts of everyone but your retirement account and finally a surge in inflation and a loss of buying power of the dollar and then the real risk, China slows it´s purchases of US debt (all ready happening by the way.) The Chinese have lightened up on the long end of the curve and are buying in the short end (under two years) which will put heavy upward pressure on the long end of the curve pushing the Treasury and Fed to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers for these longer term instruments and ultimately spiking interest rates higher here!

So, if you are long, have any profits, take them and run. Just for giggles you might even think of buying some of the ETF´s that will increase in value as the market and the economy slide.

Since I am such a nice guy here are a few you could consider:

QID, SKF, UDN, DOG.

Add some DIG, GLD and DGP to your portfolio and you will be glad you did as the wheels start to come off things. The trick here is to know when to get into these positions and even more importantly, when to get out.


And, by the way, for the rest of you, no charge for the advice.

So far this year being short the market and holding some of those positions just mentioned above, me and my guys are up in our portfolios by around 63% and it is only June!!!

[Nashville]

didn't the stock market take a dive today over 200 points? What planet are you on? Everyone and their grandmother knew this was a suckers rally, or a bear rally to sucker in people and then cash out. You honestly think Obama can print trillions of dollars and nothing happen? When Bush left office the debt was 526 billion dollars. Obama is less than a year into office and we are over 11 trillion. Don't worry your bill will be in the mail soon.

Insiders are bailing like crazy. Wonder why?

"Sales by CEOs, directors and senior officers have accelerated to the highest level since June 2007, two months before credit markets froze, as the S&P 500 rebounded from its 12-year low in March. The increase is making investors more skittish because executives presumably have the best information about their companies’ prospects."


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aflROe0Pe0QM

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/insiders-dump-shares-at-fastest-pace-in.html

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

The market is up from its low, so what? That is usually what happens after a huge sell off. However, nothing has really changed since March. Yes, job losses have slowed but the fundamentals of the economy have not changed. The economy is still in the crapper and hope and change with a little yes we can isn't going to fix that.

The market rebounded several times during the great depression to only crash again.

You could be right. We may be entering the next great depression. But I'm of the opinion that none of us really knows where we're headed. It has to play out.

And you say that nothing has changed since March. Then you say job losses have slowed (which I didn't know) and the market is up from it's low. Sounds like a few things have changed.

[MADMAX]

You could be right. We may be entering the next great depression. But I'm of the opinion that none of us really knows where we're headed. It has to play out.

And you say that nothing has changed since March. Then you say job losses have slowed (which I didn't know) and the market is up from it's low. Sounds like a few things have changed.


Let me rephrase, other than job losses letting up a bit, nothing has really changed.

Also, I am not claiming we are going into a depression. However, just because the market is up doesn't mean things are getting better.

[MADMAX]

Dear Mr. Old Guy, some facts for you to ponder, especially if you are long the market at this point;

There are about three more shoes to come off this millepede economy of the US. Here they are;

Commercial Real Estate- there are about $600 billion of loans about to crash as the developers cannot pay them off and the property values are inverted to a point where they won´t be able to refinance either. The second largest mall owner in the world declared bankruptcy on April 6th and there are a lot more headed to the same courts across the country.

Consumer Credit- highest level of delinquencies on about $7 trillion of outstanding debt (well above 16%) and we are headed higher on this one as job losses impact consumers ability to pay. This is also linked into that great huge ATM called Home Equity Loans which are just now starting to have some cracks as the banks who opened the doors through this means of lending start to tighten up on these loan holders and force them to pay the loans off or face foreclosure.

Second round of mortgage defaults/foreclosures due to ARM resets. Starting in September of this year in excess of $500 billion of ARM loans will reset. Another close to $700 billion will reset in 2010 and about $800 billion in 2011. Banks cannot manage this and the people who owe on these loans are going to find they will not be able to afford the new payments due to the hike in rate and now, some are facing a lost income earner or both who were responsible for the mortgage payments.

Inflation (which will include rising commodity prices for most of the world)- I don´t have to say much about this one, just watch everything you have to spend money on to support your life and you will know when this ugly animal is out of the box and eating at your life style and earnings.

The market rise to date is based on facts you most likely have no clue about. First and foremost, bear market rallies usually take their toll on guys like you. Secondly, nothing goes in straight lines in the markets and so, bounces happen all the time, some bounces are higher at times because of where the ball was dropped from but, as time goes on, unless there is some real energy to keep the ball bouncing, each bounce gets a bit weaker until finally the ball stops. That is what is occuring now so, don´t get taken into the hype on TV and believe that the economy is getting better just because there is a bounce or two.Take it from a trader Mr. Old Guy, there are no fundamentals or "green shoots" to support the market. The indices are up because fund managers have to get out of T bills and get some kind of returns on the money they are responsible for and it is June. They have to put the money into the markets but, as soon as they can get any kind of return, no matter where they have put the money, they book the profit/return so that they have something to report to their clients in the way of a return and to justify their fees and bonuses. For now, they are ten percenters. That means if they get 10% on any position they put on, they will take it and run. The volatility in the markets shows it. All you have to do is trace any upward move and watch as soon as you can measure around 10% on any particular move or position, it will start to come under selling pressure.

The real problem is at some point not too far from now, this is going to turn out to be more than a traders´market and the fundamentals are going to weigh in on everyone´s head. Those fundamentals point towards a very anemic economy, a long slog to recovery, lower earnings for most companies and ultimately, the negative effects of all the deficiet spending being done at the moment on top of the bailouts of everyone but your retirement account and finally a surge in inflation and a loss of buying power of the dollar and then the real risk, China slows it´s purchases of US debt (all ready happening by the way.) The Chinese have lightened up on the long end of the curve and are buying in the short end (under two years) which will put heavy upward pressure on the long end of the curve pushing the Treasury and Fed to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers for these longer term instruments and ultimately spiking interest rates higher here!

So, if you are long, have any profits, take them and run. Just for giggles you might even think of buying some of the ETF´s that will increase in value as the market and the economy slide.

Since I am such a nice guy here are a few you could consider:

QID, SKF, UDN, DOG.

Add some DIG, GLD and DGP to your portfolio and you will be glad you did as the wheels start to come off things. The trick here is to know when to get into these positions and even more importantly, when to get out.


And, by the way, for the rest of you, no charge for the advice.

So far this year being short the market and holding some of those positions just mentioned above, me and my guys are up in our portfolios by around 63% and it is only June!!!

Well ****ing said! :clap::clap::clap::clap:

[stock-penny]

Hi.thanks for sharing such an wonderful info .

[MADMAX]

Thought I'd bump this one for ****s and giggles. So much for the economy turning around.



http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/07/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2009070716

Recession fears slam stocks
Dow and S&P 500 end at two-month lows on concerns about the duration of the recession. Start of second-quarter reporting period in focus too.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 7, 2009: 4:17 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks plunged Tuesday, falling to two-month lows, as fears that the market has gotten ahead of any economic recovery were ramped up ahead of the start of the quarterly reporting period.

A selloff in commodity prices took its toll on the underlying stocks, adding to the market weakness and worries about the duration of the recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 161 points, or 1.9% according to early tallies, closing at its lowest point since April 28.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 18 points or 2%, closing at its lowest point since May 1.

The Nasdaq (COMP) fell 41 points, or 2.3%, closing at its lowest point since May 27.

Stocks have been inching lower since mid-June as a three-month stock market rally has lost steam.

"Investors are grasping the fact that the recovery, when it does come, may not be as robust as what many hope for," said Robert Siewert, portfolio manager at Glenmede. "While positive GDP would seem likely to return in the third or fourth quarter of this year, investors are starting to look out to what growth will look like next year."

The S&P 500 had spiked 40% on bets that the economy is stabilizing, but a recent bout of mixed news has stalled the advance, culminating with last week's weaker-than-expected June jobs report.

Economic news due later this week includes readings on retail sales, the job market, import and export prices and consumer sentiment.

"This is a very tough recession," said Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Company. "It's not going to be short and shallow like in 2001. We're more than 18 months into it and there doesn't seem to be a catalyst to turn things around."

He said that until the economy shows measurable signs of improvement, stocks are going to be hard-pressed to move much higher.

Underscoring the depth of the recession, a report Tuesday from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed delinquencies on credit cards and other loans jumped to a record 3.23% in the first quarter. That was a modest rise from the previous quarter.

Profit reports on tap: Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the second-quarter reporting period, which unofficially kicks off after the close Wednesday with Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500).

The aluminum maker is expected to post a loss of 37 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters estimates. Alcoa earned 65 cents a year ago. Alcoa shares inched higher Tuesday after the company's CEO reportedly said that China's economy has stabilized and that some sectors are coming back.

Next week brings reports from some of Wall Street's biggest financial firms, including Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

However, most quarterly financial reports are due out later in the month. Market participants will be looking to see not only that companies beat forecasts, but that they provide an encouraging outlook for future quarters.

"People are looking at the second half as an inflection point for economic growth," Siewert said. "Anything that would contradict that would be seen as a negative."

Declines Tuesday were broad-based, with 25 of 30 Dow components sliding. Falling oil prices dragged on Dow oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). The biggest losers were Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500).

G8: The summit of the world's leading industrialized nations begins Wednesday in L'Aquila, Italy. President Obama is expected to speak about the economic outlook. The leaders of Japan, Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Russia will also speak.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.46% from 3.51% late Thursday. Bond markets were closed Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets tumbled.

Energy prices slipped, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling $1.12 to settle at $62.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell versus the yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $4.80 to settle at $929.10 an ounce.

Market breadth was negative and volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners beat advancers three to one on volume of 770 million shares. On the Nasdaq, losers topped winners three to two on volume of 1.69 billion shares