The stock market and Obama

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

It looks to me that the market is poised for another run up (which is pure speculation on my part since no one really knows). How do you think another run up will affect things? Do you think it's all about the economy or do you think it's more about foreign policy (with respect to his approval rating)? Do you think anything he has done has helped the economy?

[CrusaderFrank]

Run up?

Seriously?

Based on what fundamentals, losing our AAA credit rating?

[Bluesgtr44]

It looks to me that the market is poised for another run up (which is pure speculation on my part since no one really knows). How do you think another run up will affect things? Do you think it's all about the economy or do you think it's more about foreign policy (with respect to his approval rating)? Do you think anything he has done has helped the economy?

I think that there are a hell of a lot of people who contribute to retirement accounts......what the hell are these investment folks supposed to do with all that money? Let me help.......invest it!

[Dadda]

I think it is going to go up because of inflation. If I put my money in a bank, I lose with inflation; if I put it in a CD, inflation eats it up at the current rates. If I put it in stocks, at least there is the hope that manufacturers can pass on inflationary expenses to their customers. That might not be true for brand names that have been able to sell their product at higher-than-market prices because people will be looking more at generic products. Medical companies look good with an aging population; however, with medicine in Obama's sights as the next industry to destroy, it could be risky.

Oh well, that's my take.

[FernandoF]

So your call for a pullback a few weeks ago is over?

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

So your call for a pullback a few weeks ago is over?

Dude, go back and look at that thread. I called the pullback to within $2. Now we go up. That's what happens after a pullback.

EDIT: I should have said "That's what usually happens after a pullback."

[FernandoF]

Dude, go back and look at that thread. I called the pullback to within $2. Now we go up. That's what happens after a pullback.

EDIT: I should have said "That's what usually happens after a pullback."

You started a pullback thread on a day the S&P closed at872.81 on April 29th, then shot mostly up for two weeks and then came back down to within $2(not at close) at $878.94 when the thread ended and that's a pullback? That's yo-yoing.

Buy Cisco in the '80's at $8. You'll make a killing, dude.

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

You started a pullback thread on a day the S&P closed at872.81 on April 29th, then shot mostly up for two weeks and then came back down to within $2(not at close) at $878.94 when the thread ended and that's a pullback? That's yo-yoing.

Buy Cisco in the '80's at $8. You'll make a killing, dude.


Let's see. On...

4/29 I said "we're due a pullback" - Which we were. The S&P had bottomed on 3/6 and had run up $206.85 in ~ 36 days (with a few pullbacks along the way).

5/6 I said "we're overbought" - Which we were. We were still due a pullback.

5/7/09 I said "My target for the S&P is either the 8ema or, if it pulls way back, the 34ema." - Over the next 6 days it pulled back exactly half way in between the 8ema and the 34ema.

5/7/09 I said "Should be a pullback for a few days" - Over the next 6 days we went from 930 to 878.

5/13/09 I said "Next target around 880 on the S&P" - It pulled back to 878.94.

Today I say, "I'm a little bullish, but I'll quickly close my longs if we get a reversal signal. The market looked like it could go either way the end of last week but finished strong. I won't make any trades today until it gives me a signal either way"



My system is really logical. If the market has made an long run up, it's "due" for a pullback. If it's made a long run down, it's "due" for a bounce. It doesn't mean that it will happen that second, or that day or that week. Just that it's due. I start lightening my longs (if we're due a pullback or my shorts if we're due a bounce. One of the main things that fools people is the "noise" of a chart. Things never to straight up or straight down. I make all my money on run ups/downs and then waiting for the pullback or bounce. So, if you think I was wrong, that's cool. I'll just keep on keeping on.

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

It looks to me that the market is poised for another run up (which is pure speculation on my part since no one really knows). How do you think another run up will affect things? Do you think it's all about the economy or do you think it's more about foreign policy (with respect to his approval rating)? Do you think anything he has done has helped the economy?

The S&P ran up to 942 today. When it gets near the 960's (probably tomorrow), I'm selling.

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

Run up?

Seriously?

Based on what fundamentals, losing our AAA credit rating?

You're not good at this are you? But just wait, there will be a down turn before you know it.

[oldandtired]

You're not good at this are you? But just wait, there will be a down turn before you know it.

I think you are bright enough regarding the market to know that Obama has little to no affect on the market right now....plus or minus.

Most activity in this economy is strictly cashing in on good deals.

It is specualtors making money off of speculatoors...and speculators losing money to speculators.

[brcon]

I think you are bright enough regarding the market to know that Obama has little to no affect on the market right now....plus or minus.

Most activity in this economy is strictly cashing in on good deals.

It is specualtors making money off of speculatoors...and speculators losing money to speculators.

Normally I would agree that the president has little to do with the market or the economy. But right now, I think he does. The market and the economy have both tanked in the last 9 months. And since the stock market is a leading indicator of future economic growth, I think it's the way major market players are viewing Obama's economic strategy.

[CaughtInTheMiddle]

I think you are bright enough regarding the market to know that Obama has little to no affect on the market right now....plus or minus.

Yeah, I agree. I think Presidents have a limited affect on the market. I think it will do what it's time for it to do. That's the key to trading. Being able to recognize when it's time.

[asda1]

Do you think it's all about the economy or do you think it's more about foreign policy (with respect to his approval rating)? Do you think anything he has done has helped the economy?

I think it depends on what the unemployment + inflation looks like in october 2010.