Market watch: 30/03/2009

[callufrax]

Well, since Spinach doesn't seem to be around yet, I thought I'd go ahead and open the thread.

Australian markets have just opened, and it looks like a downward day today:

S&P/ASX200 3658.0 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -14.3 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3603.4 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -12.2

[callufrax]

S&P/ASX200 3624.0 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -48.3 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3572.4 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -43.2
Australian markets continue to fall.

[Silk]

Thanks Cal, but your dates are freaking me out :eek: ;)

[Airborne FO]

Its cool to see others picking up the thread and getting it going. Spinach is probably knee deep in financial blogs picking out all sorts of stuff that will immediately fly over my head.......

[Blindeye101]

Well, since Spinach doesn't seem to be around yet, I thought I'd go ahead and open the thread.

Australian markets have just opened, and it looks like a downward day today:

S&P/ASX200 3658.0 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -14.3 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3603.4 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -12.2


You might want to send him a PM.
Sometimes he does not know some one else starts one.

So what stocks should I "buy" with my Make Believe Money?

[callufrax]

You might want to send him a PM.
Sometimes he does not know some one else starts one.

Already sent, about half an hour ago. :)

[spinach]

Its cool to see others picking up the thread and getting it going. Spinach is probably knee deep in financial blogs picking out all sorts of stuff that will immediately fly over my head.......
Actually, I kinda took a break from markets for a bit, and focused on other stuff.

On the last thread, I made a note about something I saw. At about 1:33 PM EST on friday, there was a mass sell of various stocks, mainly financials, across the market. It took the DOW temporarily down by more than 50 points, suddenly-- and then the stocks rebounded.

I think there is something fishy about that-- that so many stocks suddenly were selling way below current value, all at the same time.
I think someone, or some group tried to bury the market friday, and failed. If it's someone playing games, and sitting on shorts, we might see the same thing monday.

I haven't done any research yet. I am going to go look at stuff now, mainly looking at financials.

[shannytown]

Actually, I kinda took a break from markets for a bit, and focused on other stuff.

On the last thread, I made a note about something I saw. At about 1:33 PM EST on friday, there was a mass sell of various stocks, mainly financials, across the market. It took the DOW temporarily down by more than 50 points, suddenly-- and then the stocks rebounded.

I think there is something fishy about that-- that so many stocks suddenly were selling way below current value, all at the same time.
I think someone, or some group tried to bury the market friday, and failed. If it's someone playing games, and sitting on shorts, we might see the same thing monday.

I haven't done any research yet. I am going to go look at stuff now, mainly looking at financials.
You go, possum! I love reading your theories!:D

[Billy_Bob]

Obama makes GM CEO go bye bye.....

this ought to tank GM and short selling of it should flush it...

[spinach]

NIKKEI -1.22%
Shanghai composite just opened, currently flat
Australia ASX200 down 1.43%

DOW futures -87
S%P futures -11.20
gold -16.90 to 925.30
nasdaq futures -17.00

oil 52.38 down 1.20

[spinach]

Morgan Stanley bearish--
saying "sell stocks".

The 1st Qtr numbers by companies will be coming out in the next two weeks, and so far since 2007 the analyst have been too optimistic every quarter.

link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aCEfLp6MMols&refer=stocks)

Although some are calling this market a "bull market", I think they are NUTS. I think people buying into stocks now are gonna take one serious pounding over the next month or more.

[PredFan]

Morgan Stanley bearish--
saying "sell stocks".

The 1st Qtr numbers by companies will be coming out in the next two weeks, and so far since 2007 the analyst have been too optimistic every quarter.

link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aCEfLp6MMols&refer=stocks)

Although some are calling this market a "bull market", I think they are NUTS. I think people buying into stocks now are gonna take one serious pounding over the next month or more.

Yup.

I have probed a bit, with stops in place however.

[spinach]

Copper slumps.

Copper, the best performer on the London Metal Exchange this year, dropped for a second day as investors’ optimism about an economic recovery faded, hurting the outlook for metals demand. Futures fell as equities declined after a report today showed Japan’s industrial production shrank for a fifth month in February, adding to evidence that the global recession is deepening. A stronger dollar also curbed investors’ demand for commodities, according to Great Wall Futures Co.’s Li Rong.
“The outlook for the global economy is still gloomy despite the rally in equities last week,” Great Wall analyst Li said today from Shanghai. “I doubt the quick turnaround that so many out there seem to be hoping for is going to happen.”


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aqCAwoukFSLA&refer=commodities)

[Billy_Bob]

Copper slumps.




link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aqCAwoukFSLA&refer=commodities)

Well with GM crashing into a wall at the white house I was wondering how long before the market begins free fall...

Obama has just put to the test his control over a public company for a second time and everyone is taking notice.

[spinach]

NY decides the best way to balance budget is to tax the hell out of the successful


The budget agreement was reached yesterday after weeks of closed-door sessions between Paterson, Smith and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. All three are Democrats from Manhattan.



No Republican Negotiators


It was the first budget since 1965 in which the Republican leader of the Senate wasn’t among the three top negotiators. Democrats won a 32-30 majority in the chamber in last November’s election.
The higher tax income rates are proposed to end after three years. Joint-filers with adjusted income above $300,000 would pay a top 7.85 percent, and those earning above $500,000 would pay 8.97 percent, the same top rate as neighboring New Jersey, the Division of Budget said. The possibility that a higher tax rate would lead wealthy New Yorkers to leave the state was debated in the months leading to the budget agreement.
New York’s existing top tax rate is 6.85 percent for joint filers with adjusted incomes above $40,000.


Well it looks like the democrats have decided the rich and successful must pay for the lazy, stupid, and incompetent.


I'd like to see the wealthy mass exodus from NY and come to my state-- Florida....where there is no state tax. Or to any other state that has no state income taxes.


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=abVP3l30_oQQ&refer=munibonds)

[spinach]

The U.S. jobless rate (http://bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USURTOT%3AIND) climbed in March to the highest level since 1983 and manufacturing shrank, putting the recession on the brink of becoming the longest in seven decades, economists said before reports this week. Unemployment jumped to 8.5 percent from 8.1 percent in February, according to the median (http://bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USURTOT%3AIND) estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department’s April 3 report. The figures may also show payrolls fell by 660,000 workers, bringing total job losses since the contraction began to 5 million.

link here (http://link%20here)

and it's not gonna get any better with communists in charge, torturing business, and spending money like madmen.

I hope the liberal nutjobs that voted for this are enjoying their tin god and his complete lack of sense and ability.

[spinach]

NIKKEI -1.76%
Hang Seng -1.76%
Shanghai composite FLAT
TAIEX -1.93%
KOSPI -1.13%
Australia ASX300 -1.33%

DOW futures still -87

[spinach]

no link yet....

apparently Geithner is saying US Banks are going to need "a large amount of aid".

I wonder if banks should ask for any aid. They might wanna stay away from the government "aid", considering how asinine the congress has been acting.

[spinach]

NIKKEI -2.58%
Hang Seng -3.0%
TAIEX -3.0%
ASX200 -1.91%
Shanghai composite -0.13%


DOW futures -118

looking to be a dismal Monday on the market

[callufrax]

NIKKEI -2.58%

DOW futures -118

looking to be a dismal Monday on the market
With DOW futures already -118, it doesn't look good.

[ThinkingMan]

NIKKEI -2.58%
Hang Seng -3.0%
TAIEX -3.0%
ASX200 -1.91%
Shanghai composite -0.13%


DOW futures -118

looking to be a dismal Monday on the market

Maybe the exciting news about the President and the Treasury Dept. now firing people in the private sector will buoy things a bit.

[davetexas]

NIKKEI -2.58%
Hang Seng -3.0%
TAIEX -3.0%
ASX200 -1.91%
Shanghai composite -0.13%


DOW futures -118

looking to be a dismal Monday on the market

I cannot believe metals are down

[nunyadb]

I cannot believe metals are down

Gold futures are down, oil is down, copper is down, this should be telling us
all something.
But to be honest, considering how crazy stuff has been lately,
I'm damned if I know what.

Normally I'd attribute some of it to a stronger dollar, perhaps a
slight bit of deflation, now, I honestly don't know.

[davetexas]

no link yet....

apparently Geithner is saying US Banks are going to need "a large amount of aid".

I wonder if banks should ask for any aid. They might wanna stay away from the government "aid", considering how asinine the congress has been acting.


Spinach,
When will the 1 trillion fresh printed paper hit?
How do they disperse it?
A few million to every bank and say "loan yourselves silly" you can pay us back later?

[davetexas]

Gold futures are down, oil is down, copper is down, this should be telling us
all something.
But to be honest, considering how crazy stuff has been lately,
I'm damned if I know what.

Normally I'd attribute some of it to a stronger dollar, perhaps a
slight bit of deflation, now, I honestly don't know.


It could all be tied to china. We never should have let china compete unfairly. Very foolish. But millions became billions for the top players. They forgot one thing. The balance sheet

[spinach]

Spinach,
When will the 1 trillion fresh printed paper hit?
How do they disperse it?
A few million to every bank and say "loan yourselves silly" you can pay us back later?


I dunno what they are doing.
Last week I noticed a lot of weirdness with financials, and posted about it on the old thread. Something is up with the banking sector, I just don't know what.

The thing about banks is you can't force them to lend. If you try, they hand the money back. What's more forcing banks to lend to non credit worthy business can end up burying the bank.

[callufrax]

At the closing bell:

S&P/ASX200 3593.3 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -79.0 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3544.6 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -71.0

[spinach]

At the closing bell:

S&P/ASX200 3593.3 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -79.0 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3544.6 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -71.0


hmm....down about 2.1% or so.
not a good day.

european markets are all opening down, so far on early calls.
about 1%.

[spinach]

I'm watching CNBC and the live feed is messed up.
they are showing this one girl, who is just sitting there.

the engineers have the feed all messed up!
she's just sitting there and doesn't know she's live.

hilarious!

[davetexas]

I dunno what they are doing.
Last week I noticed a lot of weirdness with financials, and posted about it on the old thread. Something is up with the banking sector, I just don't know what.

The thing about banks is you can't force them to lend. If you try, they hand the money back. What's more forcing banks to lend to non credit worthy business can end up burying the bank.


I wonder if the new paper goes overseas?
Also N. Korea has perfected the $100 dollar bill (counterfeit)

[spinach]

I wonder if the new paper goes overseas?
Also N. Korea has perfected the $100 dollar bill (counterfeit)


counterfeit? have a link?

that's an act of war for them to do that.

[nunyadb]

I wonder if the new paper goes overseas?
Also N. Korea has perfected the $100 dollar bill (counterfeit)

Well, I sincerely doubt that it will do them any good.
For all that that 100 dollar bill is worth, they might just as well have
spent their time on $1's.

[nunyadb]

counterfeit? have a link?

that's an act of war for them to do that.

That's why we changed currency format the last time Spinach.
To get the counterfeit money out of the system.

Looks like we'll be doing it again pretty soon now.

[davetexas]

counterfeit? have a link?

that's an act of war for them to do that.
Heard it on the radio last week,can't verify,but sounds parr for them.

Russia has one too but the same program said it was not as good as the N.Korean bill

[spinach]

That's why we changed currency format the last time Spinach.
To get the counterfeit money out of the system.

Looks like we'll be doing it again pretty soon now.


I personally think if NK is counterfeiting US money, we ought to declare a state of war and eliminate the problem.

[spinach]

I knew it!!

Germany's Merkel has torpedoes Gordon Browns call for a "global new deal".

Germany is becoming more and more independent--
I think its a matter of weeks before they leave the EU.

[davetexas]

I personally think if NK is counterfeiting US money, we ought to declare a state of war and eliminate the problem.


Isn't oil still traded in US dollars?

[spinach]

GM is getting money for 60 days, to restructure.

I fail to see the reasoning. If they could not restructure before, what makes them think they can restructure now?

Chapter 11 is the way to go.


chrysler is getting $6 billion, and has 30 days to be absorbed/merge with Fiat.

[spinach]

Isn't oil still traded in US dollars?

I think so. same with gold.

[spinach]

I'm watching Geraldo at large.
they are talking about this GM/ Chrysler crap right now

Ann Coulter is on.

[nunyadb]

I knew it!!

Germany's Merkel has torpedoes Gordon Browns call for a "global new deal".

Germany is becoming more and more independent--
I think its a matter of weeks before they leave the EU.

Maybe we'll get lucky and Germany will save itself.
That would mean a modicum of hope for us on this side of the pond.

[davetexas]

I personally think if NK is counterfeiting US money, we ought to declare a state of war and eliminate the problem.

Wikileaks release: February 2, 2009
Publisher: United States Congressional Research Service
Title: North Korean Counterfeiting of U.S. Currency
CRS report number: RL33324
Author(s): Dick K. Nanto, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Date: April 16, 2008
Abstract The United States has accused the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) of counterfeiting U.S. $100 Federal Reserve notes (supernotes) and passing them off in various countries. This is one of several illicit activities by North Korea apparently done to generate foreign exchange that is used to purchase imports or finance government activities abroad. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of what is known from open sources on the DPRK's alleged counterfeiting of U.S. currency, examine North Korean motives and methods, and discuss U.S. interests and policy options. Although Pyongyang denies complicity in any counterfeiting operation, estimates are that at least $45 million in such supernotes of North Korean origin are in circulation and that the country has earned from $15 to $25 million per year over several years from counterfeiting. South Korean intelligence has corroborated information on past production of forged currency - at least until 1998 - and several U.S. court indictments indicate that certain individuals have been accused of distributing such forged currency more recently.




I didn't know they are using them to screw other countries. HEH HEH HEH

[spinach]

Japanese auto stocks on NIKKEI getting HAMMERED, BAD.

nissan -6.39%
toyota -2.76%
isuzu -3.17%
mazda -9.28%
mitsubishi -3.73%
honda -5.88%

also

Kawasaki -7.67%
Yamaha -6.06%

[spinach]

Maybe we'll get lucky and Germany will save itself.
That would mean a modicum of hope for us on this side of the pond.


dunno if it would help us.
Germany CAN save itself by cutting the EU loose, and protecting its finances and industry.

If they stay in the EU, they are doomed like the rest.

If Germany left the EU, I would imagine the DOW here would take a major hit.

[davetexas]

Japanese auto stocks on NIKKEI getting HAMMERED, BAD.

nissan -6.39%
toyota -2.76%
isuzu -3.17%
mazda -9.28%
mitsubishi -3.73%
honda -5.88%

also

Kawasaki -7.67%
Yamaha -6.06%



No doubt from slumping US sales?

[nunyadb]

dunno if it would help us.
Germany CAN save itself by cutting the EU loose, and protecting its finances and industry.

If they stay in the EU, they are doomed like the rest.

If Germany left the EU, I would imagine the DOW here would take a major hit.


The Dow is going to crater in the next few months anyway.
I'd personally like to see at least one Western nation survive this mess.

Who knows, maybe after the smoke clears Germany can come help
us rebuild.

[spinach]

NIKKEI in free fall....-3.90%
Hang Seng down also -3.1%

[spinach]

DOW futures -128

[davetexas]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16328073/

There is about $750 billion in U.S. currency in circulation; the Fed estimates that most of it is outside the United States.If demand for cash rises, banks go the Fed and ask for more paper notes, and the amount is deducted from the banks’ “cash reserves.” All banks are required to carry a certain minimum amount of “cash” on their books - called reserves - to meet demand from depositors who want to withdraw funds. Those withdrawals can be paid with a check, electronic transfer or with paper currency. When banks have more paper money than they need, they send it back to the Fed. The amount is then added to the banks’ “cash reserves.” (In effect, the pieces of paper are replaced with electronic bits in the bank's computer system.)


From this it appears all the new printed bills go right to the Gov. treasury.

None goes to banks.
It will then be used for Obamma's programs.

What a scam

[spinach]

NIKKEI closed down -4.53%
Hang Seng -4.69%

DOW futures -205


looks like a meltdown going on in europe as well

FTSE100 -2.53%
DAX -3.71%

European markets have only been open 30 mins and are way down

[spinach]

european markets in meltdown....

FTSE -3%
DAX -4.0%
CAC40 -3.5%


massive selling....it's UGLY and it's only been open 42 mins so far!

:surprised

[callufrax]

DOW futures -205

That is a big drop. It will probably get worse, too. I see a bloodbath on Wall Street today.

[spinach]

GM europe is down 15% ALREADY

[spinach]

That is a big drop. It will probably get worse, too. I see a bloodbath on Wall Street today.

yep.
this might be the big one. might be a -1000 day.

[spinach]

if Europe keeps dropping at this rate they WILL hit the locks.

ALL, repeat, ALL european markets dropping bad

ALL european currencies power diving vs. dollar

[nunyadb]

Spinach, I'm thinking about buying in a bit at the close of trade today.
If it's dropping today like it looks, I could make a bit of cash on the
short side of this by buying in late.

[spinach]

OIL dropping like a rock -3.51%

$50 and change

[spinach]

Spinach, I'm thinking about buying in a bit at the close of trade today.
If it's dropping today like it looks, I could make a bit of cash on the
short side of this by buying in late.

I'd say today is a very good day to go short on just about anything at the open.

anything financial, or exxon, or chevron.
This is looking really bad in europe. If they hit locks, I am pretty sure we will hit a lock early in the USA when we open

[spinach]

Soros is saying the UK needs IMF support.

I don't think that will happen. the UK has buried itself and it's all but dead meat on a stick.

gordon brown and co. have wrecked the UK.
I think the conservatives are going to have an easy time taking power next election.

Gordon Brown might consider resigning NOW and going incognito maybe to Canada.

[callufrax]

yep.
this might be the big one. might be a -1000 day.
I just hope you're wrong!

As for GM, I wonder how this would affect Holden - the Australian subsidiary of GM.

[nunyadb]

I just hope you're wrong!

As for GM, I wonder how this would affect Holden - the Australian subsidiary of GM.

Right now, it looks like they could buy their parent company if they wanted to.
Although, why in the hell they'd want to do something like that is beyond me.

[nunyadb]

Spinach, if their currencies are dropping that hard vs the dollar, then I gotta ask, with the dollar not being worth much these days, what does that say about
THEIR currencies ? Y'know ?

I guess that explains the price drop in gold, oil, etc. also.
Right now the dollar is about the strongest currency out there and it's
from what I can tell pretty much worthless.

That doesn't bode well for any of us.

[callufrax]

Spinach, if their currencies are dropping that hard vs the dollar, then I gotta ask, with the dollar not being worth much these days, what does that say about
THEIR currencies ? Y'know ?

I guess that explains the price drop in gold, oil, etc. also.
Right now the dollar is about the strongest currency out there and it's
from what I can tell pretty much worthless.

That doesn't bode well for any of us.
This is partly in jest, but maybe the AUD will end up being the dominant currency!

[nunyadb]

This is partly in jest, but maybe the AUD will end up being the dominant currency!

Not in jest, it very well could to be honest.
If we gotta drop down and let somebody else take the lead,
I'd kinda prefer it to be you guys. Always had a soft spot for
Australia .........don't know why, but always have. Beautiful place
from what I've been able to see of it.

I'm going with Spinach's assessment from Friday, something smells really
really bad with what's happening in the markets.

[spinach]

Hang Seng down 4.8%

Hong Kong market getting pummeled.

[spinach]

I'm going with Spinach's assessment from Friday, something smells really really bad with what's happening in the markets.

Well, weird stuff with financials is what I'm trying to figure out.

maybe someone big has decided to cash the chips and go chapter 11.
Or maybe someone has been hiding toxic assets, even off of any sort of paperwork, and can't do it any longer.

There's also the possibility that the financials have come to the conclusion that they are dead meat, and are trying to decide what route to go:

Chap 11
Chap 7
or run to "gubmint" .......for a few dollars more

[spinach]

I do think that another government or group of nations are trying to bury the US financials. I don't know who....but I do think that someone is trying to do it.

In fact, I think there has been significant market manipulation going on now for a while.

[spinach]

Shanghai composite also down -0.69%

It's very unusual for the china markets to be down along with all other global markets.

[spinach]

GM in frankfurt Germany down 21.27% and continuing to drop.

I expect GM stock to halve or worse, today on the US market. [that is, down 50% or more]

[spinach]

time to sign off. will be back on in the morning.
G'nite all.

tomorrow is gonna be ugly...so I need my "beauty sleep" :))

[nunyadb]

Yeah, I hear you.
I been watching the CNBC world market show and it's not pretty
in the EU at all right now.
Everybody's taking a beating.

[callufrax]

Yeah, I hear you.
I been watching the CNBC world market show and it's not pretty
in the EU at all right now.
Everybody's taking a beating.
Yeah. I'm watching Sky Business (AU), and have noticed big declines all over the EU.

Dow futures -186.

[callufrax]

Spain nationalises bank Caja Castilla - the first Spanish bank nationalised in 16 years.

[nunyadb]

Spain nationalises bank Caja Castilla - the first Spanish bank nationalised in 16 years.

Saw that.
Spain says that it was the ONLY bank in trouble.
Do you believe that ??
I sure don't.

[callufrax]

Saw that.
Spain says that it was the ONLY bank in trouble.
Do you believe that ??
I sure don't.
I'd say that there are more Spanish banks to follow. However, I know very little about how Spain is fairing, so could be totally wrong.

[nunyadb]

I'd say that there are more Spanish banks to follow. However, I know very little about how Spain is fairing, so could be totally wrong.

I don't keep up with the Spanish financials at all.
However, I do know that all the world's banking is interconnected.
Especially in Europe.
So if Spain's got one that they've had to admit has bit the dust, then
I'm willing to bet a bottle of bourbon they've got 2 more that they
haven't had to admit to just yet that are on the ropes as well.

[callufrax]

As for Barclays (I used to work for them), in the UK, they're apparently weathering the situation relatively well, from what I've heard.

[nunyadb]

Barclays isn't being hit too hard.

BHP took a big hit though.

The Minerals group is taking a real beating

[JohnRandolph]

0507 CST

FTSE 100 (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:GoURL%28ftseURL,%27%27%29;).....-99.58.....-2.55%....3,799.27
XETRA-DAX (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:GoURL%28daxURL,%27%27%29;).....-148.17......-3.52%.....4,055.38
CAC 40....... (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:GoURL%28cacURL,%27%27%29;)-82.26......-2.90%......2,758.36
HANG SENG.....-663.17.....-4.70%.....13,456.33
NIKKEI 225.....-390.89........-4.53%......8,236.08

S&P 500 (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/)......-20.50........795.60........3/30 5:52am
NASDAQ (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/)......-30.50......1225.50.......3/30 5:49am
Dow Jones (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/)........-176.00........7586.00

[RedWingLion]

0507 CST

FTSE 100 (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:GoURL%28ftseURL,%27%27%29;).....-99.58.....-2.55%....3,799.27
XETRA-DAX (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:GoURL%28daxURL,%27%27%29;).....-148.17......-3.52%.....4,055.38
CAC 40....... (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:GoURL%28cacURL,%27%27%29;)-82.26......-2.90%......2,758.36
HANG SENG.....-663.17.....-4.70%.....13,456.33
NIKKEI 225.....-390.89........-4.53%......8,236.08

S&P 500 (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/)......-20.50........795.60........3/30 5:52am
NASDAQ (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/)......-30.50......1225.50.......3/30 5:49am
Dow Jones (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/)........-176.00........7586.00

So overall, everybody is down ~4%. If the U.S. follows suit, look for a loss of ~300 points today.

Of course with GM being an American auto company, perhaps we're on the verge of 400-500. Should be an interesting day nonetheless.

I will say, though, that it seems Obama is showing the first real signs of letting failures fail with the new news about GM/Chrysler. You can't keep getting free money, thankfully.

[nortman]

Its cool to see others picking up the thread and getting it going. Spinach is probably knee deep in financial blogs picking out all sorts of stuff that will immediately fly over my head.......

Glad to see I'm no the only one.

[nortman]

With DOW futures already -118, it doesn't look good.

Well, my 401(k) current value will make sure that I'm working until my kids stuff me into a nursing home.

[callufrax]

Well, my 401(k) current value will make sure that I'm working until my kids stuff me into a nursing home.
My superannuation (what pension plans are called over here) has lost a lot of value over the last year. Maybe I'd better find myself a wife, and have kids, so I can be looked after, once I'm no longer able to!

[Long Island Bob]

NIKKEI -2.58%
Hang Seng -3.0%
TAIEX -3.0%
ASX200 -1.91%
Shanghai composite -0.13%


DOW futures -118

looking to be a dismal Monday on the market


yeah,
something about obama deciding that the auto industry should be overseen by a gov't appointed soviet.

- Who should be ceo? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- Should Chrysler work out a deal with Fiat? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- How much should executives be paid? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- Should we build the SUV'swe are good at building or compete on Japan's homefield making smaller cars? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- Should we invest 4% or 20% of our resources into making things like hybrids and electric cars? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.

I think the market doesn't mind (and even prefers) the gov't setting broad conditions for a bailout, but this is more like day-to-day micro-management, it smacks of Russian style communism.

[old_runner]

Well..Obama rejected the re-organization plans at both GM and Chrysler. Wagoner's replacement named at GM.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-set-to-fall-as-apf-14780461.html

[Long Island Bob]

Dow ....7,553.96 ...-222.22 ... -2.86%

Nasdaq ...1,497.00 ...-48.20 ... -3.12%

S&P 500 ...791.55 ...-24.39 ... -2.99%

10 Yr Bond(%) ....2.6990% .... -0.0620

EUR/USD ...1.3139.... -0.0136

UBS BLOOMBERG commodities Index 921.32 -10.75

Deflation fears eating your 401k

[Long Island Bob]

still sliding

Dow ... 7,513.26... -262.92... -3.38%

Nasdaq ... 1,491.12... -54.08... -3.50%

S&P 500 ... 788.50... -27.44... -3.36%

10 Yr Bond(%)... 2.6830%... -0.0780

Geithner says banks need more TARP money,
Chairman of US auto soviet (obama) soon to speak

[spinach]

DOW -266.....and chairman maobama about to speak and give us wisdom from his "little red book".


S&P -28
nasdaq -55

gold +5.30
oil 50.14 down 2.23


looks like we are gonna be on par with Europe's bad day

[Boof]

Looks like the market is just floating around -270 for the last 15 minutes. Maybe awaiting the remarks from the President before swinging either way?

[spinach]

european markets:

DAX -186
FTSE -117
CAC40 -108

all big drops

[spinach]

Looks like the market is just floating around -270 for the last 15 minutes. Maybe awaiting the remarks from the President before swinging either way?


well..I'm sure he can say something stupid enough to bury the market today. He can't say anything good, because none of his policy is good. His policy is to destroy the private sector and become the first black american stalin.

[spinach]

he's reading from a teleprompter straight ahead.

what a goon

this guy can't speak from the heart. he only speaks what his handlers let him say. What a goon...
he's not even close to a leader. he's a sack of soviet feces.

I'm not even sure if a feces eating dog would even sniff him

[spinach]

I think Rush and Sean are gonna have a field day with this moron's speech.

He isn't saying anything we don't already know.

[spinach]

"We have no intention of running GM"

well that settles it. He wants to run GM. Whenever a liberal scumbag says "I did not have sex with that woman", then that means he had sex with that woman.

A liberal cannot make an absolute statement without it being a lie.

[spinach]

he used the "B" word.....

trying to spin bankruptcy.

IOW, not wanting to admit what chap 11 means.
it means UAW = hosed
creditors= hosed

[Long Island Bob]

- Who should be ceo? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- Should Chrysler work out a deal with Fiat? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- How much should executives be paid? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- Should GM build the SUV'swe are good at building or compete on Japan's homefield making smaller cars? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.
- Should GM invest 4% or 20% of our resources into making things like hybrids and electric cars? Ask the gov't. Only the gov't decides such things.

[Long Island Bob]

Gm Market Cap = $1.67B

Just buy the whole thing, wrap it up in a ribbon and give it to the UAW.

[spinach]

now he's saying the gov't will stand behind car warranties.

Wait a minute....that's money. He has no authority to do that, nor is it written anywhere in any legislation.

he should be impeached.
maybe the SCOTUS will step in and finally say its time the dictator was ejected

[arubicus]

he used the "B" word.....

trying to spin bankruptcy.

IOW, not wanting to admit what chap 11 means.
it means UAW = hosed
creditors= hosed

So letting these companies fail? So all this bailout would be for nothing? We were right?????

[Long Island Bob]

“If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And If it stops moving, subsidize it.”
- Ronald Reagan

[spinach]

and.......no questions....

chairman mao has now encouraged you with wisdom from little red book. sings songs to "dear leader" and faint at his feet, in a show of patriotism!

<insert hammer and sickle here>

[spinach]

Michigan unemployment over 10%, the highest in the nation.

a liberal utopia has the highest unemployment. imagine that!

[Long Island Bob]

Capitalism does not function via government deciding who should be CEO, what kind of technology should be invested in, and what is the proper mix of products (70% SUV's or 10% Suv's) to be made.

That is marxism and that has failed every time.

[ck1312]

Watching Obama use a third telepromter, is like watching a broken bobble head and I thought watching him use two telepromters was bad

[arubicus]

There went our little upswing...

[spinach]

DOW sliding....-290

S&P -30


folks, this can make a sudden drop at any time. If you want to buy shorts, NOW is the time.

I'd say a 50-50 shot we have a titanic drop this afternoon

[RedWingLion]

Michigan unemployment over 10%, the highest in the nation.

a liberal utopia has the highest unemployment. imagine that!

It's actually 12% now and it's why I left the state a couple years ago. The legislators have been mismanaging that state for years.

[utmom]

now he's saying the gov't will stand behind car warranties.

Wait a minute....that's money. He has no authority to do that, nor is it written anywhere in any legislation.

he should be impeached.
maybe the SCOTUS will step in and finally say its time the dictator was ejected

Spin- this is just killing me. Last week when Obama had his little town hall thing (I couldn't get my question admitted - ****ed me off!) I wanted to ask him as a constitutional attorney if he could tell me EXACTLY where he has the power to do any of the things he is pushing like universal healthcare, AIG, big 3 bailout. I do not think he has a clue to what our constitution is. Someone should revoke his law degree because he obviously didn't earn it.

[RedWingLion]

Well, my original prediction of a drop of 300 has no shot now because of that speech. Probably 400-500.

[spinach]

It's actually 12% now and it's why I left the state a couple years ago. The legislators have been mismanaging that state for years.


the good people of Michigan need to rise up and throw out the liberals. Start over, clean. Get rid of the unions, and help the automakers stay there in Detroit, and to make money.

Michigan needs a leader. A conservative gov and a conserv congress.
then it can be saved, I think.

[utmom]

When is Obama leaving the country? It better be soon or we might not have a Wall Street (and 401K's) left. When he tries to re-enter the country ICE should demand proof of citizenship. :razz:

[spinach]

Well, my original prediction of a drop of 300 has no shot now because of that speech. Probably 400-500.


european markets close in 20 mins. Sometimes there is a fairly sizable drop right after that.

[spinach]

I think chairman maobama should put a banner across wall street

"mission accomplished"

[spinach]

all 30 dow stocks well into the red.

"chairman maobama= mission accomplished"

trillions of debt
govt control of business
wall street in total panic
global meltdown

gee, the liberal messiah is spreading leprosy and slaying the living...
imagine that

[Blindeye101]

I think chairman maobama should put a banner across wall street

"mission accomplished"

How about a picture with Sorros holding Maobama like a puppet and saying "Mission accomplished this is my BEST puppet EVER."

[spinach]

time for a little dark humor...

CBS [the network stock] is down 17% :))

Maybe they should bring dan rather back....

[RedskinsRob]

This is devastating. My parents are in panic mode watching their 401ks nose dive. My dad is close to retirement and now he's watching the plans he had go up in smoke. I swear I think Obama is intentionally dooming our economy for a NWO or something.

[spinach]

This is devastating. My parents are in panic mode watching their 401ks nose dive. My dad is close to retirement and now he's watching the plans he had go up in smoke. I swear I think Obama is intentionally dooming our economy for a NWO or something.

I know man. It's really sad. The people of this country voted for national suicide at a time when we needed responsible leadership.

[Strongbone]

You might want to send him a PM.
Sometimes he does not know some one else starts one.

So what stocks should I "buy" with my Make Believe Money?

Do you look at technicals? If so use the 20,10 and 5 moving averages for stock purchases. When the 5 crosses the 20 you can buy that stock and be fairly sure you are okay. If the 5 and 10 cross the 20 you KNOW that stock is okay. If and when the 5 crosses the 10 SELL!

Also realize we are still in a Bear market. Rallies up will be short, falls will be drastic.

If you buy stock, get insurance...buy puts after a few days about 8 days of a rise up. I say 8 days because most market makers use the 8 moving average for their buying and selling.

I like to buy stock and on expiration Fridays (3rd Friday of the month) I sell calls or puts against the stock. I get that money right away and if the stock doesn't reach the price I sold the call or put for...I get to keep my stock and the money I made selling the call or put. I did this expiration Friday (March 20) and was able to keep my LOW and BKE. (real money) I've done this often enough that I own LOW and BKE free and clear.

Just a few ideas.

[Long Island Bob]

This is devastating. My parents are in panic mode watching their 401ks nose dive. My dad is close to retirement and now he's watching the plans he had go up in smoke. I swear I think Obama is intentionally dooming our economy for a NWO or something.


I feel for him, I truly do, but
if he is close to retirement he should have moved out of stocks YEARS ago.

It's called asset allocation.

The closer you get to needing the money, and the lower your risk tolerance, the more you should replace stocks with cash, bonds and money markets.

[spinach]

DOW -270.....

hovering there now for a few minutes

[spinach]

whoa........GOLD now DOWN.....-5.40
it was up, earlier

[spinach]

I'm listening to Rush now...he's dissecting chairman maobama's teleprompter reading speech earlier.

[spinach]

DOW -253
S&P -26
nasdaq -47

oil 49.54 [finally went lower than 50 again]

gold -7.70

[spinach]

German DAX -5.10%
FTSE -3.49%
CAC40 -4.27%


Our markets will likely be a tad lower than FTSE at close, and better than the DAX. On a serious down day this has been the usual pattern.

so our "theoretical close" barring any chaos would be around -320 to about -390 at the worst

I'm comfortable with that range
-320 to -390. put me down for "medium sure".

[spinach]

OIL still dropping.....49.34 down 3.03

that's amazing. It's also a sign that demand has eroded to nothing.
Which means industry has slowed WAY WAY down.

which means , since gold is down, and stocks are down, folks are hoarding dollars.

Deflation on the march.

[spinach]

Dow -262

[Onan the Barbarian]

Sheesh Spinach, I can't see the Dow being down 5% like the Dax. They've obviously got their own problems but with the Dow being up so much in the past two weeks any downtrend is going to be overly negative. There isn't really a reason for the Dow to be down at the moment. No macro numbers and it seems to be a bit of profit taking and short selling. I'm looking for a shocking unemployment number when it comes out, I think this week. I don't know if it will kill the Dow but it should kill the rally with consumer spending being so much of US GDP which comes out soon and having such an effect on home prices which is the root cause of this disaster. Continuing unemployment claims have been around 600,000 for the month, so unemployment should be at least that but with the Government numbers I'd expect that number. It will be interesting to see the ADP numbers, I think they'll be a lot worse than the official numbers. But I do think this will be the zenith of the bad macro news. It should get 'better'. Or at least not as bad from now on.

[Long Island Bob]

OIL still dropping.....49.34 down 3.03

that's amazing. It's also a sign that demand has eroded to nothing.
Which means industry has slowed WAY WAY down.

which means , since gold is down, and stocks are down, folks are hoarding dollars.

Deflation on the march.

FEAR of deflation on the march.

I still believe that Peter Schiff, and the Eurpoeans, and the Chinese are correct and that the Obama Bernanke response is waaaay to far too far to the left and massive inflation, perhaps including hyperinflation is a bigger worry in the 6-12month picture.

[spinach]

I think I have a clue on the weird financial shifts.

I noticed a lot of weird patterns in financials for over a week now, and have commented on the previous market watch thread.

I think what has happened is that a lot of the MBS's that were still profitable, have lost enough value to where they are turning toxic.
IOW, some mortgages are now turning upside down, and by MTM, they end up going into default. thus, each one poisons any MBS and turns the entire thing toxic. I think that there are enough of these happening at a large enough rate, that the Banks and lenders see the pattern and are being faced with potential collapse themselves as their revenue dries up from home loans. In addition, once these things start to cascade, the ratings on the banks by the ratings agencies will be lowered, thus making it even HARDER for these financials to get loans, or bailouts.

I think the "toxic asset bomb" is about to go off in a big way for all banks.

We shall see if I am correct. If this is so, look for an announcement AFTER these companies post their 10-Q's for the 1st quarter.

[spinach]

In addition, there may be an external influence by a foreign government that is intentionally trying to bury the financials, at the same time as their assets go toxic.

It would not surprise me if it's China or russia doing this.

[spinach]

I do know that JPM and Bank of America are desperate for cash. Keep an eye on them. I think they are in far deeper doo doo than they are letting on.

[Onan the Barbarian]

I think you're mistaken about MBSs Spinach. Go to the Economy forum if you want to understand these things. A lot of them were leveraged which means that with a 30% fall in prices they're all gone. The other thing to remember is that they're pooled and cascading, so if you've got the lowest risk tranche it isn't in your interests to modify a mortgage. If you've got the highest risk tranche you'll be begging for a modification. Then you've got the CDSs which were taken out against the the MBSs (Hello AIG!) and you'll understand why it's so complicated.

[spinach]

I think you're mistaken about MBSs Spinach. Go to the Economy forum if you want to understand these things. A lot of them were leveraged which means that with a 30% fall in prices they're all gone. The other thing to remember is that they're pooled and cascading, so if you've got the lowest risk tranche it isn't in your interests to modify a mortgage. If you've got the highest risk tranche you'll be begging for a modification. Then you've got the CDSs which were taken out against the the MBSs (Hello AIG!) and you'll understand why it's so complicated.

What I'm saying is that I think the GOOD loans that the financials had are now turning sour, going "inverted". Thus, some folks will walk away, and because of MTM, some will default.

IOW, the source of revenue is drying up for the banks.
In addition, the credit card situation is probably about to explode.

In addition, CDS's are yet another bomb that can go off at any time-- once there are defaults, kaboom...these CDS's come due

[spinach]

DOW -275
S&P -29.80
nasdaq -51


gold -6.20
oil 48.45 down 3.93.. oil is dropping!

[Long Island Bob]

In addition, there may be an external influence by a foreign government that is intentionally trying to bury the financials, at the same time as their assets go toxic.

It would not surprise me if it's China or russia doing this.

Naaah, it's bad (liberal) gov't policy.

From Thanksgiving to jan 15 Fannie and Freddie put a moratorium on foreclosures. Come Jan 16 the bomb finally detonated. The news was released today.










Ka - Boom

Foreclosures Initiated:
77,000 in October
69,000 in November
56,000 in December
217,000 in January <-- a four-fold increase
243,000 February <-- five fold increase



http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/30/real_estate/February_Hope_Now/index.htm

What do you think the March numbers look like?

[spinach]

What do you think the March numbers look like?

Oh....I suppose about 250k to 300k

[spinach]

Well...Johnson and Johnson made a brief peek to positive....now back in the red. All DOW stocks negative again.

DOW -286
S&P -31

[Onan the Barbarian]

What I'm saying is that I think the GOOD loans that the financials had are now turning sour, going "inverted". Thus, some folks will walk away, and because of MTM, some will default.

IOW, the source of revenue is drying up for the banks.
In addition, the credit card situation is probably about to explode.

In addition, CDS's are yet another bomb that can go off at any time-- once there are defaults, kaboom...these CDS's come due

I really don't think credit cards are the risk that people expect. I'd imagine a lot of them are charging 20% interest, and I find it hard to believe 20% or more are defaulting. It is a risk but the interest they charge would surely cover that.
MTM isn't nearly the bogeyman that is mad out. If you look at Geitners plan, the Fed is giving 6:1 (10:1?) leverage on these MBSs tat the private sector is supposed to take up. Then they are making the loans non-recourse. Do you really think they'd be doing this if they were worth the price they are going to sell them for?
The MBSs are running off at a crazy rate, I think it is about a 5% or more default rate on Home Loans. You can mark to market all you like but if they are running off like that none of the mortgages will survive the life of the loan. And if you have a lower tranche that's principle is effected by loans running off then the MBSs based on that are virtually worthless.

[Long Island Bob]

Oh....I suppose about 250k to 300k

Same here.

Then it will taper off by April (or May). a 2-3 month moratotium on foreclosures does not causeor prevent foreclosures. It simply means that foreclosures which would have occurred in one period instead occur in another period.

It's not the worst thing the gov't has ever done, but it leads to what economcists call "information assymetry." In this case the banks knew the underlying number of foreclosures but the investors did not. Before investors knew the truth they bought bank stocks.

Now they know the truth.

Add to that obama's decision to micromanage GM, and Geithner's statements that the banks need still more TARP money and the bloom comes off the rose . . . leaving nothing but a stem full of thorns.

[spinach]

I really don't think credit cards are the risk that people expect. I'd imagine a lot of them are charging 20% interest, and I find it hard to believe 20% or more are defaulting. It is a risk but the interest they charge would surely cover that.
MTM isn't nearly the bogeyman that is mad out. If you look at Geitners plan, the Fed is giving 6:1 (10:1?) leverage on these MBSs tat the private sector is supposed to take up. Then they are making the loans non-recourse. Do you really think they'd be doing this if they were worth the price they are going to sell them for?
The MBSs are running off at a crazy rate, I think it is about a 5% or more default rate on Home Loans. You can mark to market all you like but if they are running off like that none of the mortgages will survive the life of the loan. And if you have a lower tranche that's principle is effected by loans running off then the MBSs based on that are virtually worthless.


a lot of folks have maxed the credit cards, and CC defaults are up. People are addicted to easy credit, and now its going to bite them.

MTM is a large part of the problem, as it essentially forces a homeowner into default, because of loss of home value- even if that person was making payments perfectly fine.

Geithner's plan is idiocy. It won't work. In fact, already investors are saying the loan time of three years is too short, that it needs to be far longer.

Worst of all, the lenders have to report these losses and put them on the balance sheet. This can end up killing these lenders. Worse, the conditions are likely to persist for a LONG time.

the new market is not going to be "easy credit", its going to be "tough credit". That means a whole lot of banks are dead meat, and the only ones that are gonna do well are the smaller banks that did not go nuts with the subprime mortgage idiocy.

[Onan the Barbarian]

The thing I can't get over LIB is the percentage of foreclosures. I think in the last period the percentage of forced sales was 56%! That is just nuts and not a normal market. It makes sense that banks would hold back on foreclosure sales, but you'd hope that there aren't more to come because that is a totally lopsided market.

[spinach]

The thing I can't get over LIB is the percentage of foreclosures. I think in the last period the percentage of forced sales was 56%! That is just nuts and not a normal market. It makes sense that banks would hold back on foreclosure sales, but you'd hope that there aren't more to come because that is a totally lopsided market.

this brings up another important point.

all of the economists and analyists are trying to read the markets based on normal trends and normal patterns.

THIS CURRENT STATE IS NOT NORMAL. THEREFORE NONE OF THEIR TRADITIONAL MEANS OF ANALYSIS WILL WORK.

And this is precisely why people like me have a far better track record of analysis so far, than the so called "stuffed shirt" experts.

They live in their own little world, and cannot accept that the current model cannot be explained in what they have spent their life believing.

this makes the mess even worse, when policy is being based on "experts" who are using an "invalid model".

[Long Island Bob]

The thing I can't get over LIB is the percentage of foreclosures. I think in the last period the percentage of forced sales was 56%! That is just nuts and not a normal market. It makes sense that banks would hold back on foreclosure sales, but you'd hope that there aren't more to come because that is a totally lopsided market.

Fortunately the real estate market is almost back to long-term equilibrium (another 10-20% to go and we are back at the middle)

I figure it'll take 6-12 mos to clearout the excess and I do not know how low real estate prices will go in that time. BUT . . . whatever your house is worth today, that's roughly what what it 'll be worth in 24 months . . . (unless inflation causes a SECOND real estate bubble.)

[spinach]

the DOW just broke the -290 resistance level.


-312. could go into free fall now

[Long Island Bob]

Dow ... 7,474.63 ... -301.55 ... -3.88%
Nasdaq ... 1,490.35 ... -54.85 ... -3.55%
S&P 500 ... 782.89... -33.05 ... -4.05%

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EDJI/chart;range=1d/image;size=239x110

If it's not down 2% it's not really down.












Let me be the first to predict a 100-pt last hour mini rally.

[spinach]

Fortunately the real estate market is almost back to long-term equilibrium (another 10-20% to go and we are back at the middle)

I figure it'll take 6-12 mos to clearout the excess and I do not know how low real estate prices will go in that time. BUT . . . whatever your house is worth today, that's roughly what what it 'll be worth in 24 months . . . (unless inflation causes a SECOND real estate bubble.)


with the unemployment, loss of value, foreclosures, and other economic mess, I personally think housing is far from it's bottom.

I think the 'actual bottom' will be about to where housing is half of it's current value.

WORSE, you have clowns out there still building houses--- burning their cash and building an asset that won't be even close to worth what it cost to build.

A lot of people do not understand the current environment. the house builders should have stopped building, period. Then use their cash available to buy existing homes at auction. But that would make too much dang sense.

[Onan the Barbarian]

a lot of folks have maxed the credit cards, and CC defaults are up. People are addicted to easy credit, and now its going to bite them.

MTM is a large part of the problem, as it essentially forces a homeowner into default, because of loss of home value- even if that person was making payments perfectly fine.

Geithner's plan is idiocy. It won't work. In fact, already investors are saying the loan time of three years is too short, that it needs to be far longer.

Worst of all, the lenders have to report these losses and put them on the balance sheet. This can end up killing these lenders. Worse, the conditions are likely to persist for a LONG time.

the new market is not going to be "easy credit", its going to be "tough credit". That means a whole lot of banks are dead meat, and the only ones that are gonna do well are the smaller banks that did not go nuts with the subprime mortgage idiocy.

MTM doesn't effect the mortgage holders. What it does do is force the lenders to write down loans that may not be effected by the current crisis. Unfortanately I and Wall Street thinks the banks are kidding themselves about these MBSs. Most of the ones the banks have on the asset side of their books are worthless, and if they weren't why is Geitner offering such a crazy good deal to get rid of them???
They just aren't worth a cracker, the banks can carry on all they like about MTM but if they were actually worth something the market would pay something for them without getting 10:1 free leverage from the Fed and non-recourse loans. They're not worth a cracker and everyone knows it. Unfortunately the banks can't sell them for half a cracker as they'd be insolvent. And the sad thing is the taxpayer is picking up the tab for them, private business can only lose their initial investment, leveraged for nix by the Fed, and all the losses are taken up by the taxpayer. I honestly don't know why they aren't just taken over by the taxpayer, for all that risk they just may turn a profit.

[Old_Mil]

Fortunately the real estate market is almost back to long-term equilibrium (another 10-20% to go and we are back at the middle)

I figure it'll take 6-12 mos to clearout the excess and I do not know how low real estate prices will go in that time. BUT . . . whatever your house is worth today, that's roughly what what it 'll be worth in 24 months . . . (unless inflation causes a SECOND real estate bubble.)

Thing is, there are still a lot of houses on the market that have been on the market for quite a while, and sellers haven't adjusted their asking prices to account for the new economic reality.

So I don't necessarily agree that whatever your house is worth today is what it'll be worth in 24 months.

[spinach]

MTM doesn't effect the mortgage holders.


yes it does. Suppose you have a loan for 300k. say the house is worth 300k. you make your payments.

next month, the market power dives, and your home is now worth 200k. Well, under MTM rules, you now have to pay at least $100k IMMEDIATELY to get the loan value under the value of the asset. If you do not give the lender 100k dollars on the spot, you are gonna be foreclosed. that is the MTM rules.


What it does do is force the lenders to write down loans that may not be effected by the current crisis. Unfortanately I and Wall Street thinks the banks are kidding themselves about these MBSs. Most of the ones the banks have on the asset side of their books are worthless, and if they weren't why is Geitner offering such a crazy good deal to get rid of them???
They just aren't worth a cracker, the banks can carry on all they like about MTM but if they were actually worth something the market would pay something for them without getting 10:1 free leverage from the Fed and non-recourse loans. They're not worth a cracker and everyone knows it. Unfortunately the banks can't sell them for half a cracker as they'd be insolvent. And the sad thing is the taxpayer is picking up the tab for them, private business can only lose their initial investment, leveraged for nix by the Fed, and all the losses are taken up by the taxpayer. I honestly don't know why they aren't just taken over by the taxpayer, for all that risk they just may turn a profit.

these assets are worth something. They just cannot be evaluated accurately because of MTM, and because there is no regular market. WORSE, the government is propping up these zombie banks, allowing them to keep the toxic MBSs in limbo-- [no assigned value].

The correct move is to let the failures fail, and let the toxic assets be forcibly put on the balance sheet. THEN the successful can come in and take these assets as the zombies are forced into chapter 11.

this is how the market is supposed to work, and at WORST we would have had only a moderate recession, instead of global meltdown.

[nunyadb]

So.....predictions.........does the Dow stop dropping before it loses 500 today ??

[spinach]

the biggest problem for the banks is loss in value on good mortgages.

as the bad mortgages fail, or get a refi--
the housing market values drop more and more.
Thus, by MTM rules, good loans turn toxic.

and thus, any asset this mortgage is bundled into, now turns toxic as well. And if the homeowner doesn't walk, the lender on that property has to take them to court, and foreclose. Burns even more money.

MTM needs to be suspended at least for three to four years, and the SEC needs to GREATLY beef up how it keeps track of the balance sheets of the banks.

[spinach]

So.....predictions.........does the Dow stop dropping before it loses 500 today ??


My best guess is -320 to -390.
I am "medium sure" on that. [which means 75% faith]

[Onan the Barbarian]

Fortunately the real estate market is almost back to long-term equilibrium (another 10-20% to go and we are back at the middle)

I figure it'll take 6-12 mos to clearout the excess and I do not know how low real estate prices will go in that time. BUT . . . whatever your house is worth today, that's roughly what what it 'll be worth in 24 months . . . (unless inflation causes a SECOND real estate bubble.)

The trouble is the 'bad' markets (i.e California and Florida) are what a lot of these MBS are based on. Banks wanted to get rid of them and Bear Sterns, Citi etc. provided a way of doing that. Some of those markets are down over 50%.
Maybe I'm being a bit doom and gloom, but at the end of the day the US taxpayer is going to pick up the bill for this. However I think the market will recover soon, but I really do worry that their will be a massive down sell because of inflation and monstrous government debt in the next couple of years.

[spinach]

The trouble is the 'bad' markets (i.e California and Florida) are what a lot of these MBS are based on. Banks wanted to get rid of them and Bear Sterns, Citi etc. provided a way of doing that. Some of those markets are down over 50%.
Maybe I'm being a bit doom and gloom, but at the end of the day the US taxpayer is going to pick up the bill for this. However I think the market will recover soon, but I really do worry that their will be a massive down sell because of inflation and monstrous government debt in the next couple of years.


Well, my take is that the USA is dead meat and on course for economic collapse in September.

Australia will be okay, probably-- so you can laugh at America later this year. :cry:

[Long Island Bob]

Thing is, there are still a lot of houses on the market that have been on the market for quite a while, and sellers haven't adjusted their asking prices to account for the new economic reality.

So I don't necessarily agree that whatever your house is worth today is what it'll be worth in 24 months.

let me be clear.

My analysis:
if your house is worth $250,000 today it will be worth ~$250,000 24 mos from now.

It doesn't matter that your neighbor has the same house and is TRYING to sell it for $300,000. It doesn't matter that had you sold it at the height, you could've gotten $375,000.


We are now very near long-term equilibrium prices (a little above.) it'll take a little while to shake out all the chaffe, and I can only guess how low it will go in the meantime.

But if you do not need to sell, take a deep breath, look at what homes like yours are actually selling for today. That's what you can sell yours for in about 24 mos.

[Onan the Barbarian]

Well, my take is that the USA is dead meat and on course for economic collapse in September.

Australia will be okay, probably-- so you can laugh at America later this year. :cry:

Well I'm laughing now:)). Unfortanately Australia follows the US by about three months, so I'll be crying in december:((. Australia's major trading partners are Japan and China, and they are in a world of pain atm. They've had export drops of 30%+ in the last quarter, Sth Korea had a 50% drop in exports. Basically the US buys crap of these countries and they buy crap of Australia. So I'm not enjoying this, it's just the reality of the situation.

Unfortunately the US had high debt before all this happened so will have very high debt after all of this. I don't enjoy hearing it but the nimbers are just mind boggling. I'd love to say the US shouldn't have any stimulus plans but I do think that without them the US would be screwed. It's pretty much a rock and a hard place deal, either way you're screwed.

[spinach]

People that already own a house haven't really lost anything. In fact, if they already own their homes, they could likely sell NOW--
and end up in a few months buying back the same house type for 10's of thousands less.

the only people getting burned at the folks with ARM, or who have just started paying off a house.

[Long Island Bob]

The trouble is the 'bad' markets (i.e California and Florida) are what a lot of these MBS are based on. Banks wanted to get rid of them and Bear Sterns, Citi etc. provided a way of doing that. Some of those markets are down over 50%.
Maybe I'm being a bit doom and gloom, but at the end of the day the US taxpayer is going to pick up the bill for this. However I think the market will recover soon, but I really do worry that their will be a massive down sell because of inflation and monstrous government debt in the next couple of years.

I read somewhere that roughly 2,000 of America's 2,500 banks have taken zero TARP dollars and that real estate included 96% of loans from banks are still being paid on time (typically 99% are.)

Yes the 500 banks that took money are LOT bigger than the others butmy point is therare plenty of soundly run companies, plenty of highly experienced professioanls and plenty of cash on the sidelines to pick up the pieces if the badbanks were simply 9and non-chaoiticaly) disolved.

Yes we are going to get a very very big bill for gov't missteps here. but the gov't is paying the bill by printing money which means the bill will most likely come in the form of inflation and subisidzed zombie companies blocking the growth-path of good solid companies.


The bigger fear right now: if big inflation does set in the ONLY way to stop it is for the Fed to actually borrow-back all the money it is printing
- at higher rates because of inflation
- at higher rates because of reduced credit worthiness.

To borrow back THAT much money at THAT high an interest rate will either prove impossible (hyper inflation) or will bankrupt us for two generations.

[RedWingLion]

let me be clear.

My analysis:
if your house is worth $250,000 today it will be worth ~$250,000 24 mos from now.

It doesn't matter that your neighbor has the same house and is TRYING to sell it for $300,000. It doesn't matter that had you sold it at the height, you could've gotten $375,000.


We are now very near long-term equilibrium prices (a little above.) it'll take a little while to shake out all the chaffe, and I can only guess how low it will go in the meantime.

But if you do not need to sell, take a deep breath, look at what homes like yours are actually selling for today. That's what you can sell yours for in about 24 mos.

Good advice.

[Long Island Bob]

Well I'm laughing now:)). Unfortanately Australia follows the US by about three months, so I'll be crying in december:((. Australia's major trading partners are Japan and China, and they are in a world of pain atm. They've had export drops of 30%+ in the last quarter, Sth Korea had a 50% drop in exports. Basically the US buys crap of these countries and they buy crap of Australia. So I'm not enjoying this, it's just the reality of the situation.

Unfortunately the US had high debt before all this happened so will have very high debt after all of this. I don't enjoy hearing it but the nimbers are just mind boggling. I'd love to say the US shouldn't have any stimulus plans but I do think that without them the US would be screwed. It's pretty much a rock and a hard place deal, either way you're screwed.

australia still has an old economy doesn't it?

I mean you folk actually dig stuff out of the ground and turn it into valuable things, right?

If that's the case Australia would benefit from inflation. You should be cheering loudly for Ben-the-printing-press-Bernanke and Obama his hood ornament.



Yes if the US (and world) economy continues to deflate you will be hit harder than we will.

[spinach]

DOW -327

now it's in my "prediction band".

It's probably gonna drop a little more later on--probably around 3:30 pm est.

S&P -34.55
Nasdaq -55.35

gold -3.50
oil 48.48

[Long Island Bob]

Good advice.

Thank you.

note however
I do not apply the sameoutlook to second homes (vacation homes etc.)


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of vacation and investment homes slid 22 percent last year, a sign that tough economic conditions and tight lending requirements shut out buyers, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.

Second home sales comprised 30 percent of the entire housing market, down from a peak of 40 percent in 2005 when financing was easier. . . .

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sales-of-second-homes-fall-22-apf-14785377.html


While the current oversupply of vacation homes for sale will likely taper off in 6-12 mos it could be a long long time before large numbers of buyers are willing to start big-ticket luxuries again.

[Onan the Barbarian]

Alexis McGee, president of Foreclosures.com, a nationwide clearinghouse for foreclosure information, said “annualizing the first two months of this year, if foreclosures were to continue unabated, we could end up with another about 1.2 million homes back in lenders’ hands by year-end.”

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20090313/BUSINESS/90312063/1006/NEWS01


The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due in the fourth quarter was 11.18 percent, the highest on record, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. The percentage of loans 60 days past due and 90 days or more late also were at record levels.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aFS4Zbll06TU&refer=us

If it is almost 12% nationwide that is completely insane. Especially if lenders are holding properties back. Sorry I haven't got better sources but there you are.


Spinach, I have to disagree about people selling their home if they can afford the repayments. The cost of selling your home, not to mention the stress and inconvenience just aren't worth it. If you have a house, even if it's underwater you really shouldn't sell it. I'm not giving financial advice but you'd be looking to almost immediately move into a new house so their won't be any real advantage.

[spinach]

Spinach, I have to disagree about people selling their home if they can afford the repayments. The cost of selling your home, not to mention the stress and inconvenience just aren't worth it. If you have a house, even if it's underwater you really shouldn't sell it. I'm not giving financial advice but you'd be looking to almost immediately move into a new house so their won't be any real advantage.

Well, I personally think it would we wise for folks to sit tight in their home for at least the next 5 years.

The point is that if someone DOES sell right now, the housing values are dropping, so they will be able the find the same level of house CHEAPER down the road.

the only ones who are in trouble are the ones who have paid 5+ years on a mortgage. They are pretty much hosed no matter what, thanks the MTM. Eventually MTM is going to bury a lot of home buyers

[Onan the Barbarian]

australia still has an old economy doesn't it?

I mean you folk actually dig stuff out of the ground and turn it into valuable things, right?

If that's the case Australia would benefit from inflation. You should be cheering loudly for Ben-the-printing-press-Bernanke and Obama his hood ornament.



Yes if the US (and world) economy continues to deflate you will be hit harder than we will.

That is pretty much the majority of our exports. We sell a lot of iron ore nickel etc. the china and japan and they sell it to you guys as cars and toys. We have consumer spending as a lot of our GDP just like the US, the good thing is our banks aren't in the trouble the US commercial banks are in. Plus we had zero government debt before this, which allows our government to be a bit more socialist (Huzzah!).
The problem with deflation of the US dollar for us is that our exports are valued in US dollars, so the higher the AUS$ to US$, the lower the AUS$ income to us.

[spinach]

Jim Cramer was saying friday that we had a "bull market"
and was telling folks to buy.

will he have to guts to come on the air today?
:whistle:

[spinach]

That is pretty much the majority of our exports. We sell a lot of iron ore nickel etc. the china and japan and they sell it to you guys as cars and toys. We have consumer spending as a lot of our GDP just like the US, the good thing is our banks aren't in the trouble the US commercial banks are in. Plus we had zero government debt before this, which allows our government to be a bit more socialist (Huzzah!).
The problem with deflation of the US dollar for us is that our exports are valued in US dollars, so the higher the AUS$ to US$, the lower the AUS$ income to us.


Well, if the Australian govt has no debt and the banks are fine, you guys need to make sure they keep it that way.

accept the roller coaster ride, and you guys will be VERY HAPPY with the end result-- once this settles out.

In the meantime, it would be wise for folks to accept that "easy credit" is gonna have to go away, and 'tight credit' has to be the name of the game for a while.

You guys are gonna be well off I think....because soon the shooting is gonna start, and your raw materials are gonna be in high demand.

[Onan the Barbarian]

Jim Cramer was saying friday that we had a "bull market"
and was telling folks to buy.

will he have to guts to come on the air today?
:whistle:

Now that's a sell signal!! I still can't forget his "YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW BAD IT IS OUT THERE, NO IDEA!". Then a week later he was saying it's time to buy Bear Sterns.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4Qc6q0sCR4&feature=related

[Boof]

Well, I personally think it would we wise for folks to sit tight in their home for at least the next 5 years.

The point is that if someone DOES sell right now, the housing values are dropping, so they will be able the find the same level of house CHEAPER down the road.

the only ones who are in trouble are the ones who have paid 5+ years on a mortgage. They are pretty much hosed no matter what, thanks the MTM. Eventually MTM is going to bury a lot of home buyers


Can you explain this--MTM that is? I have been scanning through the posts as always but this is the first I have heard of such a thing. My scenario is this:

Refinancing 360k right now at 4.875 30 year fixed
House appraised at 450k--down almost 20% from 2 years ago

So if the appraisal value falls lower then what I owe I am in some sort of trouble??

[spinach]

Now that's a sell signal!! I still can't forget his "YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW BAD IT IS OUT THERE, NO IDEA!". Then a week later he was saying it's time to buy Bear Sterns.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4Qc6q0sCR4&feature=related


I think Cramer is kinda goofy and flippant. He's really good at explaining terminology and how a market works, in detail.

But his stock advice has been kinda bad lately.

[Onan the Barbarian]

Well, if the Australian govt has no debt and the banks are fine, you guys need to make sure they keep it that way.

accept the roller coaster ride, and you guys will be VERY HAPPY with the end result-- once this settles out.

In the meantime, it would be wise for folks to accept that "easy credit" is gonna have to go away, and 'tight credit' has to be the name of the game for a while.

You guys are gonna be well off I think....because soon the shooting is gonna start, and your raw materials are gonna be in high demand.

We should be, but metals prices have been very low. They fell a couple of months before the Bear Sterns meltdown and haven't really recovered to any great degree. The problem we have atm is Chinese government companies trying to take over Australian metals companies, so that they'd be offering prices to companies they part own. Thankfully the government has been pretty hardarse about it, they've knocked one takeover on national security grounds and I'm not sure they'll approve the other one. ( google Chinalco and Rio Tinto, I think Rio is listed in the US)

[spinach]

Can you explain this--MTM that is? I have been scanning through the posts as always but this is the first I have heard of such a thing. My scenario is this:

Refinancing 360k right now at 4.875 30 year fixed
House appraised at 450k--down almost 20% from 2 years ago

So if the appraisal value falls lower then what I owe I am in some sort of trouble??


right now, you are fine.
say the markets dive, and a new appraisal comes out and says 300k. If that happens, get a second appraisal.

say the second one also says 300k.

then because the value of the house is LOWER than the loan value, you would have to pay the lender 60K or more, to get you back under the loan value. They would give you maybe a couple of weeks, or put you in foreclosure.

under MTM, your amount owed has to ALWAYS be under the appraisal value of the home. At any time, if that is not the case, the lender can force foreclosure.

[Long Island Bob]

. . . . . Plus we had zero government debt before this. . . . .


ZERO debt????
I don't know if I hate you or want to become one of you.

[spinach]

We should be, but metals prices have been very low. They fell a couple of months before the Bear Sterns meltdown and haven't really recovered to any great degree. The problem we have atm is Chinese government companies trying to take over Australian metals companies, so that they'd be offering prices to companies they part own. Thankfully the government has been pretty hardarse about it, they've knocked one takeover on national security grounds and I'm not sure they'll approve the other one. ( google Chinalco and Rio Tinto, I think Rio is listed in the US)


Actually....you guys could take advantage of cheap prices right now on oil, and stock up-- and stock up on materials that you don't have on hand. Now that would be a wise way for the govt to take a little debt-- if it's sitting on a big sea of oil, in reserves.

then when oil goes back up...the Aus govt sells it off at market price, and fills the national coffers to the brim with new gold.

[spinach]

ZERO debt????
I don't know if I hate you or want to become one of you.


They had no debt before this.
I think they have spent a little cash, but their govt has not gone bananas with bailouts.

their total debt might be under $50 billion.

[Onan the Barbarian]

I think Cramer is kinda goofy and flippant. He's really good at explaining terminology and how a market works, in detail.

But his stock advice has been kinda bad lately.

Sorry Spinach but he's a pusher. HE has to have something to sell and he'll have something to sell every time he has a program. I'm sure the guy is well intentioned (if a little crazy) but you just have to look at his tips to realise that expecting a good tip every week or month just isn't going to work out. The amount of time he took to work out that it's a bear market is hopeless, and even though he seems a permabull I'm sure he'll take plenty of time to realise it's a bull market. Just be patient and don't listen to these loons.

[Long Island Bob]

Can you explain this--MTM that is? I have been scanning through the posts as always but this is the first I have heard of such a thing. My scenario is this:

Refinancing 360k right now at 4.875 30 year fixed
House appraised at 450k--down almost 20% from 2 years ago

So if the appraisal value falls lower then what I owe I am in some sort of trouble??

MTM affects homeowners only indirectly.

It affects banks and mortgage bond holders tremendously and has made them, in many cases unwilling to loan money.

[spinach]

Sorry Spinach but he's a pusher. HE has to have something to sell and he'll have something to sell every time he has a program. I'm sure the guy is well intentioned (if a little crazy) but you just have to look at his tips to realise that expecting a good tip every week or month just isn't going to work out. The amount of time he took to work out that it's a bear market is hopeless, and even though he seems a permabull I'm sure he'll take plenty of time to realise it's a bull market. Just be patient and don't listen to these loons.

I don't take his advice.
I do listen when he discusses terminology, like what ETF's are, and what CDS's are and so on.

he does know all the terms and how things work. He's just not that good it seems at putting it all together. I think he's gonna have a hard time having any credibility today when he comes on.

[Long Island Bob]

I don't take his advice.
I do listen when he discusses terminology, like what ETF's are, and what CDS's are and so on.

he does know all the terms and how things work. He's just not that good it seems at putting it all together. I think he's gonna have a hard time having any credibility today when he comes on.

True, but if you put 100 stock analysts on TV 99 of them are going to be bullish. (It's like the networks have some rule against recommending short selling or something.)

Cramer is the one guy who is sometimes Bearish.

Still,
when you do your show in lederhosen or a chicken suit an scream "buy buy buy skeee daddy!" it kinda makes ya seem more bullish than the rest.

[Onan the Barbarian]

I don't take his advice.
I do listen when he discusses terminology, like what ETF's are, and what CDS's are and so on.

he does know all the terms and how things work. He's just not that good it seems at putting it all together. I think he's gonna have a hard time having any credibility today when he comes on.

Here's a tip for free. Short whoever the GM and Ford unions are medically insured with. Everyone goes on about the unions but no-one thinks about where the money goes.

Yes LIB we had zero debt. We're looking at $50-100 billion in debt, which is around 10-15% debt to GDP. Aerica is looking at topping 100% debt to GDP in my opinion. I love Obama but I think he's going to down in history as one of the worst Presidents. It's a bit sad really, I don't think he has much choice because unemployment would just go nuts without any sort of intervention.

[spinach]

hmm...coming off lows.

DOW -251
looks like it will be a bit better than my band,

[spinach]

DOW -248 at the bell

see where it settles in a bit

[Onan the Barbarian]

PPT doing their work;)

[spinach]

looks like it's settled in at -254.16 for a a final.

7522.02

[RedWingLion]

looks like it's settled in at -254.16 for a a final.

7522.02

I was close with my -300 prediction from earlier this morning (based off foreign markets), but not close enough. I'm actually surprised it ended above -300. I thought the GM news/Obama conference would send it plummeting in the minus 400-500 range for sure.

[DaveKlassix]

I was close with my -300 prediction from earlier this morning (based off foreign markets), but not close enough. I'm actually surprised it ended above -300. I thought the GM news/Obama conference would send it plummeting in the minus 400-500 range for sure.

As did I. I guess thats why i'm not a financial planner.

[Long Island Bob]

Here's a tip for free. Short whoever the GM and Ford unions are medically insured with. Everyone goes on about the unions but no-one thinks about where the money goes.

Yes LIB we had zero debt. We're looking at $50-100 billion in debt, which is around 10-15% debt to GDP. America is looking at topping 100% debt to GDP in my opinion. I love Obama but I think he's going to down in history as one of the worst Presidents. It's a bit sad really, I don't think he has much choice because unemployment would just go nuts without any sort of intervention.

As of March 26, 2009 US federal debt was $11 Trillion and change.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/feddebt/feddebt_daily.htm

However under out system it makes sense to add in state and local debt ~$1.5 T
http://www.cato.org/pubs/tbb/tbb_0706-37.pdf


Note that in the past 2 weeks Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner have announced and additional spending of $2.2 trillion (of which $300 b is to buy outstanding bonds).


Hmm I that totals ~$14.4 Trillion





In 2008 the US GDP was $14.2 T.
http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls

As long as the economy grows 10-15% this year we're safe.

[RedWingLion]

As long as the economy grows 10-15% this year we're safe.


Are we counting government jobs here?

[callufrax]

Another down day for the Australian stock markets:

S&P/ASX200 3574.0 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -30.4 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3523.9 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -30.3

[spinach]

Another down day for the Australian stock markets:

S&P/ASX200 3574.0 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -30.4 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3523.9 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -30.3

Wow.....interesting deal. Usually after a big loss there is a slight rebound at the open. And looks like the ASX is already down 0.8%
12 mins into opening.

[spinach]

DOW futures are +21
dunno if that will hold by morning.

european futures look like they aren't accurate. They are showing big declines, based on todays market close.
They should change later on.

[RedWingLion]

Uh oh: Cramer's on the prediction rampage again:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29957527

That’s why he recommended buying into this weakness. Maybe the market drops another 3% to 5% – at most – though he said we might have seen a bottom in the last 20 minutes of today’s trading session. Worst-case scenario, though, he doesn’t expect the Dow to dip below 7,000 or the S&P 500 below 750, which is 5% down from here.

Next stop: Dow below 7,000 :razz:

I kid, I kid.

[Long Island Bob]

Are we counting government jobs here?

lol


if only you knew . . . .

sadly
when economists measure the economy, they count things exactly the same if you buy $100,000 worth of house and food to protect your family, or if the government buys a single hammer for $100,000 and throws it in the ocean.

Why?? because in the "NEXT ROUND" your $100,000 creates just as much benefit, in terms of jobs, demand and income as did the silly government purchase.

"DUHHH," you might scream "but there is a difference in THIS round." Sadly, in the narrow minded view of modern economists,
as soon as youdo that they point out that
1. you are screaming,
and
2. if we are going to talk about "next round" then we get into talking about the benefit of savings, and we all know that savings are bad . . . because you might eventually spend them and you might not, and if you don't send them they don't enter as data into our our models.

[callufrax]

1437 AEDT:

S&P/ASX200 3611.5 http://www.asx.com.au/images/up_glyph.gif 7.1 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3557.4 http://www.asx.com.au/images/up_glyph.gif 3.2

[callufrax]

At close:

S&P/ASX200 3595.5 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -8.9 ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 3543.9 http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -10.3
So, slightly down.

[nunyadb]

That's not boding well at all.

[spinach]

NIKKEI -0.9%
Hang Seng +0.30%
Shanghai composite +0.58%
TAIEX flat
KOSPI [S Korea] +1.14%
Australia -0.62%

DOW futures +23

[spinach]

the liberals are bankrupting the country:

The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or guaranteed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s. New pledges from the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. include $1 trillion for the Public-Private Investment Program, designed to help investors buy distressed loans and other assets from U.S. banks. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.
link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=armOzfkwtCA4&refer=bond)


isn't that disgusting??
How can people not see the liberals for the scum that they are??

[spinach]

there's no way the USA can recover from the damage the liberals have done. The game is over.

I never thought in my lifetime I would see my country destroy itself by choosing flaming morons at its worst possible time.
This mistake by the people is worse than any other event in the nations history.

[nunyadb]

Spinach, I keep on trying to tell them, but they just don't seem
to even want to know.
Boy are they ever in for a surprise come about Sept.

[Silk]

there's no way the USA can recover from the damage the liberals have done. The game is over.

I never thought in my lifetime I would see my country destroy itself by choosing flaming morons at its worst possible time.
This mistake by the people is worse than any other event in the nations history.

I always thought it would be interesting to live in historical times.

I was niave :(

[nunyadb]

I always thought it would be interesting to live in historical times.

I was niave :(

When the Chinese wish to curse a person, it goes like this.
"May you live in interesting times".

Pretty smart people those Chinese.

[spinach]

Spinach, I keep on trying to tell them, but they just don't seem
to even want to know.
Boy are they ever in for a surprise come about Sept.

I remember the day I joined the Navy. I was happy to defend the country and wanted to go out and be like JFK said, "ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country".

I served my time, and even though I didn't care so much for the NAVY after my 6 yr term, I was still happy to have served. Ronald Reagan was the president then. I used to listen to his speeches, and thought that with the correct people like HIM in charge, the nation could handle anything.

Now today, I am more depressed than I have ever been. Maybe deep down I've been hoping something would happen to change the dynamics, and something would happen to stop these IDIOTS in charge from wrecking the nation.

Apparently it's not gonna happen. That money has been shoved out there, and the liberals policy has killed us, in less than 100 days.

I never thought the USA would fall apart. I was wrong.
Worse, the voters chose suicide. It's not like some dictator marched in and ruined us.

[nunyadb]

Spinach, we both know that that's how great civilizations fall.
From the inside.
Once they can vote themselves money from the public treasury,
it's only a matter of time.

Maybe we'll get lucky and be able to rebuild something after the
fires are out and the ashes have cooled.

It'll be a challenge, but not something that we and those like us
couldn't find the strength to do.

[spinach]

I really feel sorry for the folks who have kids.
I don't have any....so I can probably hang on, incognito during the chaos.

The liberals have doomed them, bigtime.
if they only KNEW what obama and his goons have done, they would cry, and would not stop crying.

[spinach]

Spinach, we both know that that's how great civilizations fall.
From the inside.
Once they can vote themselves money from the public treasury,
it's only a matter of time.

Maybe we'll get lucky and be able to rebuild something after the
fires are out and the ashes have cooled.

It'll be a challenge, but not something that we and those like us
couldn't find the strength to do.


Well, if the LORD does not call me home....
I wanna be around to help the new founders rebuild the country.
I wish there were a way to avoid collapse.
Its in God's hands.

[Silk]

I really feel sorry for the folks who have kids.
I don't have any....so I can probably hang on, incognito during the chaos.

The liberals have doomed them, bigtime.
if they only KNEW what obama and his goons have done, they would cry, and would not stop crying.



You know, it does break my heart knowing what they are inhereting, but then I remember the promise of the real One and no matter what this life throws at me, my children, this place is only temporary.

[nunyadb]

I've got 6 Grandkids man, I know how you feel.
Thing is, prepare for what's coming and help them that you can
to get through this.
It's going to be a bad next couple of years.

[spinach]

You know, it does break my heart knowing what they are inhereting, but then I remember the promise of the real One and no matter what this life throws at me, my children, this place is only temporary.

Yep. I just hope that those who voted for these goons have a long enough life that they can see the ruin they have brought their own kids. Those that voted for these goons need to feel some serious emotional pain.

[spinach]

If God can make a way for me---out of current circumstances....
I am going to Washington DC.

David against Goliath.

[spinach]

JP Morgan expecting Deutschebank to writedown another $4.9 billion, Barclays another $3 Billion,BNP Paribas $1.1 billion, and Credit Suisse $1.2 billion.

Looks like European markets are in for a serious hit today on the market open. Financials are gonna probably be hammered bad.

[nunyadb]

If God can make a way for me---out of current circumstances....
I am going to Washington DC.

David against Goliath.

They'll never listen to you man, the fix is in.
Even the Repubs for the most part are now in on this.
They're just making sure that they get theirs before the
whole thing falls apart.
You can try, but it's not going to matter in the end.
I've read the book, I know how it ends. So do you.

[nunyadb]

JP Morgan expecting Deutschebank to writedown another $4.9 billion, Barclays another $3 Billion,BNP Paribas $1.1 billion, and Credit Suisse $1.2 billion.

Looks like European markets are in for a serious hit today on the market open. Financials are gonna probably be hammered bad.

Yeah, but notice that they ARE writing down that debt and taking the hit.
That's something that our own financials aren't doing.
The longer that's delayed and the feds keep pumping money into it,
the harder the drop's going to be and the deeper the damage it'll cause.

[spinach]

They'll never listen to you man, the fix is in.
Even the Repubs for the most part are now in on this.
They're just making sure that they get theirs before the
whole thing falls apart.
You can try, but it's not going to matter in the end.
I've read the book, I know how it ends. So do you.

Well, I said IF God makes a way for me, I would go. It does not matter the odds, or anything. The battle is God's not mine.
What can I do as one person? nothing, of myself.

Anyways,

chairman maobama is in London now, ready for G20.
I bet he antagonizes a bunch of nations, and proves to them how much a blithering idiot he is.

[Silk]

Well if you guys are Believers, then you know, the United States of America is not in the book of Revelations and there is a really good reason for that:

it is either non-existant or it is insignificant..take your pick

[nunyadb]

chairman maobama is in London now, ready for G20.
I bet he antagonizes a bunch of nations, and proves to them how much a blithering idiot he is.

Of course he will. That's a given.
The bad part of that is that he's going to alienate the
only people that could potentially save our collective butts.

[nunyadb]

Well if you guys are Believers, then you know, the United States of America is not in the book of Revelations and there is a really good reason for that:

it is either non-existant or it is insignificant..take your pick

From what I'm seeing, it's going to be because of such internal
turmoil that it might as well not even exist as far as power
structure goes.

Remember, the One is going to run things and that couldn't happen
if there were a competing true world power.

Things will work out the way that they are supposed to work out.

[spinach]

They finally updated the futures for Europe

DAX, CAC, and FTSE100 all set to open slightly up.
Dunno if it will hold with the various banks taking more writedowns.

[spinach]

DOW futures are currently +46

[Silk]

G'night folks...this girl is going to bed.

Thanks for all you research and insight spinach and everyone else :)

nun, nice chatt'n :)

See what the market brings in the mornin :)

[nunyadb]

They finally updated the futures for Europe

DAX, CAC, and FTSE100 all set to open slightly up.
Dunno if it will hold with the various banks taking more writedowns.

Spinach, call me crazy, but I think the markets are taking a "good news"
view of the writedowns.
Tells them that the financial institutions are acting responsibly and taking
their "medicine" for the previous bad decisions.
Once that is cleared, the markets can look forward to moving ahead in
a better financial climate.

[nunyadb]

G'night folks...this girl is going to bed.

Thanks for all you research and insight spinach and everyone else :)

nun, nice chatt'n :)

See what the market brings in the mornin :)

G'night Silk.
sleep well.

[spinach]

good night Silk :)

[RedWingLion]

the liberals are bankrupting the country:


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=armOzfkwtCA4&refer=bond)


isn't that disgusting??
How can people not see the liberals for the scum that they are??

I guess I'm puzzled here as to why you're slamming people as "scum" when, in a part you left out, an economist is specifically stating they're "glad" the U.S. has done this to stem a financial crisis:

“The comparison to GDP serves the useful purpose of underscoring how extraordinary the efforts have been to stabilize the credit markets,” said Dana Johnson, chief economist for Comerica Bank in Dallas.

“Everything the Fed, the FDIC and the Treasury do doesn’t always work out right but back in October we came within an eyelash of having a truly horrible collapse of our financial system, said Johnson, a former Fed senior economist. “They used their creativity to help the worst-case scenario from unfolding and I’m awfully glad they did it.”

[Long Island Bob]

Stock futures up,
commodities indexu p 1.5%
US dollar down against most currencies.


yesterday they were selling everything and buying dollars,
today they are selling dollars and buying everything

[spinach]

I guess I'm puzzled here as to why you're slamming people as "scum" when, in a part you left out, an economist is specifically stating they're "glad" the U.S. has done this to stem a financial crisis:


the "Keynesian economists" are flipping idiots.
they cure is worse than the disease. :rolleyes:

they are ignorant morons that think spending tons of money that we don't have is a "solution".

DUH!!

[spinach]

DOW +62

S&P +7.30

Gold +3.10

[spinach]

European markets rebounded some

FTSE +3.2%
DAX +1.55%
CAC40 +1.68%

[spinach]

JP Morgan expect a new low before recovery

U.S. stocks may pare this month’s rally because valuations and credit markets do not yet support equities, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said. Indexes will have a “more constructive” second half as economic data in the world’s largest economy improves, Thomas Lee (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Thomas%0ALee&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), JPMorgan’s chief equity strategist, wrote in a report dated yesterday. Lee advised investors to add to holdings in industrial companies and trim positions in pharmaceuticals (http://bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=S5HLTH%3AIND).
“We think a final low is ahead of us for two reasons,” the note said. “Valuations are not yet broadly supportive” and “we are looking for a more pronounced improvement in credit to affirm a low.”


Well, I agree that there will be a new low. But I don't see any grounds for a recovery as long as the root issues have not been addressed, and the government keeps on meddling and doing destructive things to the free markets.


There's gonna be a new low all right. And then more "new lows" as time goes on until there is a crash.


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=abrjTVCoCchk&refer=stocks)

[spinach]

Deutsche Bank's Jones is saying the same thing. New lows in the works.

The three-week rally in global stocks will end because valuations still aren’t cheap enough to have marked a bottom, while problems with mortgage-backed securities will dog the financial system, Deutsche Bank AG said. The MSCI World Index has climbed 15 percent since March 9 when it dropped to the lowest since October 1995. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which surged 16 percent in that time, is trading at 14 times earnings, based on 10 years of profits, according to data compiled by Yale University’s Robert Shiller.
The gauge needs to fall below 10 times to achieve a final bottom for a bear market, Brad Jones, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report dated yesterday. When the U.S. market crashed in 1929 there were 8 rallies of 15 percent or more before the index reached a final nadir in 1932, said Jones.
“The bottom line is we expect markets to revisit early- March lows again in the early summer,” said Jones, who holds a Ph.D. in international finance from Macquarie University in Sydney. “Long-term students of the market will note ominously that the current cycle is closely tracking the Great Depression sell-off in both duration and magnitude.”




I think these people expecting rally need to understand why we haven't had a rally yet-- and they also need to use their flipping brains and look at WHY we don't have high inflation right now, when by the numbers, we SHOULD.


They just don't get it. the root problems of "easy credit" have not been addressed, the failures are not being allowed to fail-- and the banks who are getting money are sitting on it.


DUH!!


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a_cSTWwQB5LE&refer=stocks)

[spinach]

Treasuries headed for the worst quarter since 1996, because of supply.

Treasuries were little changed, headed for the worst yearly start since 1996, as record debt sales and the prospect of increased issuance dampened demand for government securities. U.S. debt handed investors a loss of 1.7 percent this quarter, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master index, as President Barack Obama asks Congress to pass a $3.5 trillion budget for 2010. The government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or guaranteed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s.
“We’ve been in a scenario where yields have risen when supply has risen,” said Jeffry Feigenwinter, head of Treasury trading at BNP Paribas Securities, one of 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “Going into next quarter, we will drift toward higher yields because of the quantity issued versus the amount that the Fed buys.”

link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=ajko5bWqLuZE&refer=bond)
Gee whiz....after all, Bernanke has only has the printing press running nonstop. Why should that be bad??


:rolleyes:


These morons are killing the country and people sit around wondering that things are going south?

[Long Island Bob]

Treasuries headed for the worst quarter since 1996, because of supply.



link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=ajko5bWqLuZE&refer=bond)
Gee whiz....after all, Bernanke has only has the printing press running nonstop. Why should that be bad??


:rolleyes:


These morons are killing the country and people sit around wondering that things are going south?

If folks (like the Chinese) are actually BUYING the new debt issues, it is at least better than them NOT buying and Bernanke printing the money.

[spinach]

Germany headed for deflation....
link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=adjTnXSMWw24&refer=bond)

Inflation is “heading towards zero,” WestLB AG fixed- income analysts including Jean-Christophe Curtillet in Dusseldorf wrote in a research report today. “This is likely to put deflation back on the agenda ahead of the ECB meeting.”
Inflation expectations, as measured by the so-called breakeven rate on the five-year German note, fell two basis points to 0.89 percent. That’s down from 1.01 percent on March 26, the highest this year. Breakeven rates are derived from the difference in yield, or spread, between nominal bonds and their inflation-linked equivalent.



‘Far From Over’


The credit crisis is “far from over” and global financial regulations must be overhauled to regain investor trust, Deutsche Bank’s Banziger said yesterday in Frankfurt. “We are in the middle of it.”
Actually, the are probably already in deflation. Considering the very low velocity of money, they are probably being fooled by consumer prices as accounted- but there is no way to measure the actual effect on the economy, at the basic level, when there is no credit.


Eventually the consumer prices are gonna start dropping.

[spinach]

Japan "Land of the sinking sun"......Bond risk increases, signaling a worsening recession there.

The cost of protecting Japanese corporate bonds from default jumped as employment data published today signaled a deepening recession in the world’s second- largest economy. The Markit iTraxx Japan index of credit-default swaps rose 23 basis points to 433 at 11 a.m. in Tokyo, Barclays Capital prices show. The benchmark of 50 investment-grade companies, including All Nippon Airways Co. and Japan Tobacco Inc., climbed to a record 570 basis points on March 12.
“Investors are cautious about the macro-economy and the financial results of Japanese companies,” Fumihito Gotoh, head of Japan credit research at UBS AG in Tokyo, said in a phone interview. “Credit concerns over Japanese companies are excessive. There’s room for further tightening.”
Credit default swaps are interesting things. As the rates on them increase, it's a sign that the sellers think the chance of default has gotten higher. The scary part is if you see a spike in them, or the sales themselves go way down on CDSs.
Then that happens, you can expect Japan to fold up within days.


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=allD6bqsN1wE&refer=bond)

[spinach]

Chrysler / Fiat may face impossible goal.

link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=aK89MpBS5uhE&refer=funds)
Chrysler LLC may face an “impossible goal” in completing an alliance with Fiat SpA and meeting an Obama administration deadline to erase debt and win more union concessions by April 30. Chrysler got its blueprint for the next month yesterday from President Barack Obama’s task force, which said that $6 billion in new aid hinges on “extinguishing the vast majority” of outstanding secured debt and new givebacks from the United Auto Workers.
Meeting those requirements would require help from lenders, which haven’t negotiated in the three months since Chrysler got its U.S. loans and have little incentive to do so because they would be paid off first in bankruptcy. Even Obama’s autos panel suggested Chrysler might fare better by reorganizing in court.
“It is an impossible goal,” said Sheldon Stone, a partner at Amherst Partners LLC, a restructuring firm in Birmingham, Michigan. “The likelihood is that the 30-day period is going to allow Chrysler to get their house in order for a bankruptcy.”


once again it's the same old thing. Everyone wants to be pain free. That is not a realistic attitude. Those whom Chrysler owe money have every right to get their money, and not write it off as a loss. That is why we have bankruptcy courts.
The government should quit interfering and let the markets heal.


But that would make too much sense, wouldn't it?

[spinach]

Housing notes

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 19 percent in January from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as demand plummeted and foreclosures rose. The S&P/Case-Shiller index (http://bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20Y%25%3AIND)’s decrease was more than forecast and compares with an 18.6 percent decrease in December. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year- over-year records began in 2001.
A glut of unsold properties may keep prices low, shrinking household wealth and damping spending. Still, sales of new and previously owned homes rose in February, indicating the housing slump, now in its fourth year, may ease as policy efforts to unclog credit and aid borrowers begin to take hold.
“At this point it doesn’t look great for the near term,” Robert Shiller (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert+Shiller&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a co- creator of the home price index, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. Still, he said, prices “can’t keep declining at this rate forever.”


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=amN9MrcX5IkY&refer=munibonds)


Things are gonna get worse, because of MTM. As the values keep coming down, some people are gonna end up "upside down" and end up being foreclosed--
and worst of all


when the toxic assets finally cause banks to die and go into bankruptcy, those assets will be accounted and the housing prices will PLUMMET. The government better get rid of MTM before that happens, or a WHOLE LOT of healthy house loans will suddenly go "upside down".

[spinach]

Get ready for MORE STUPID ASS BAILOUTS, AND MORE STUPID ASS PRINTING OF MONEY.

:rolleyes:
The Federal Reserve has taken the primary role in determining how much new capital the nation’s biggest banks need to weather the economic slump, people familiar with the matter said. Putting the Fed in charge may help ease concern that different assessments by different agencies would lead to some firms being judged less strictly than others. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said he anticipates the results, due at the end of April, will result in “large” capital needs for some companies, offering investors a way of differentiating between weaker and stronger lenders.
link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=a8BmCBkyGWJU&refer=munibonds)

There is more info in the article, I advise folks to read the WHOLE thing.

[spinach]

DOW +65
S&P +5.85

GOLD +3.00

OIL 47.89 DOWN 0.51

think about it folks....oil is dropping, despite the huge cuts by OPEC. Now why would that happen? Simple. Demand is withering away.

Well what does that mean? Well, what runs on oil? Our industry and economy. So if the demand is going away, FASTER than than the flow cuts can raise prices, that means the economy is contracting at a very high rate.

In addition, don't trust economists and their "predictions". They are far from being 'data neutral' and far from being willing to say what people don't want to hear.

Watch the commodities, watch credit flow, watch how much money is being printed, and watch gold and oil.

You won't need an economist if you do that. As a matter of fact, keep in mind that the "economists" didn't see this mess coming, and since it began, they have consistently been saying "rally" and "we have found the bottom". IOW, they have been consistently wrong, and with very bad timing.

[Long Island Bob]

Get ready for MORE STUPID ASS BAILOUTS, AND MORE STUPID ASS PRINTING OF MONEY.

:rolleyes:

link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=a8BmCBkyGWJU&refer=munibonds)

There is more info in the article, I advise folks to read the WHOLE thing.

Obama is on his way to Europe for the week. There will be no new spending plans announced unti he returns.

[spinach]

ISM-Chicago Purchasers Index drops to 31.4 in March

U.S. business activity contracted in March for a sixth consecutive month, an indication manufacturing is weakening in the second year of the recession. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer decreased to 31.4, lower than forecast, from 34.2 the prior month. Readings below 50 signal a contraction.
The credit crisis and a global slowdown in demand are forcing U.S. manufacturers, such as automakers General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, to cut workers to trim costs.


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aAwsdTPGfrxE&refer=economy)


read the article. the "experts" had forecast it would climb to 34.3

[spinach]

european deflation concerns

Europe’s inflation rate dropped more than economists expected to the lowest on record in March as the economic slump intensified across the region, adding to concerns that deflationary pressures are emerging. Inflation in the euro area slowed to 0.6 percent from 1.2 percent in February, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The March rate is the lowest since the data were first compiled in 1996 and below the 0.7 percent forecast by economists, according to the median of 35 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Inflation is subsiding as Europe’s economy grapples with the worst recession since World War II and companies cut spending and jobs to weather the global slump. Spanish consumer prices declined from a year earlier for the first time ever in March, data showed yesterday. The European Central Bank has signaled it is ready to reduce its benchmark rate further from a record low to help revive growth.
“We don’t have an inflation threat at the moment and that’s why the ECB has to focus on deflation,” said Sylvain Broyer, an economist at Natixis in Frankfurt. “We’ll probably reach the low point in inflation at just below zero around mid- year.”


link here (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=asAAJlE5R7Bg&refer=economy)


Read the article. They say "quantitative easing" [printing of money] should be used to prevent the deflation. These people are nuts. It won't work, and cannot work. The money being injected is being sat on. The velocity of money is so low that adding cash actually LOWERS the inflationary rate. These people preaching about printing money just don't understand that this is NOT a normal market event, where printing of money causes immediate inflation.

[spinach]

DOW up a little more--


DOW +96
S&P +9.30

gold +0.70
Oil 48.03

[Blindeye101]

Obama is on his way to Europe for the week. There will be no new spending plans announced unti he returns.

Is there a way we can leave him there?

[Long Island Bob]

Is there a way we can leave him there?

They don't want him.

They think he is spending too much money.
I am NOT kidding.

By JONATHAN WEISMAN in Washington and MARC CHAMPION in Brussels
Ahead of a high-stakes economic meeting of the Group of 20 nations, European countries are striking an uncompromising tone toward Washington, bolstering President Barack Obama's political opponents at home and pouring some cold water on Europe's love affair with the new U.S. president.

In Berlin Thursday, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at his side, French President Nicolas Sarkozy explicitly rejected Mr. Obama's push for more global fiscal stimulus, declaring, "the problem is not about spending more, but putting in place a system of regulation so that the economic and financial catastrophe that the world is seeing does not reproduce itself." . . . .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123689700452612473.html

Out going Czech Prime Minister (and EU President) calls Obama stimulus plan "a way to hell"

EU presidency: US economic plans 'a way to hell'
Czech premier, currently European Union president, calls US economic measures 'a way to hell'
Raf Casert, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday March 25, 2009, 7:17 am EDT

STRASBOURG, France (AP) -- A top European Union politician on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as "a way to hell."

Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."
A day after his government collapsed because of a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, Topolanek took the EU presidency on a collision course with Washington over how to deal with the global economic recession.

Most European leaders favor tighter financial regulation, while the U.S. has been pushing for larger economic stimulus plans.

Topolanek's comments are the strongest criticism so far from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from recent U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand. . . . .

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-presidency-US-economic-apf-14737788.html

French Prime Minister François Fillon is in Washington to garner support for tougher international financial regulations ahead of the April 2 Group of 20 economic summit in London. . . .

In a speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington on Monday, Mr. Fillon . . .

. . . .struck back at critics in the media and within the Obama administration who say Europe needs to spend more on government economic stimulus.
The French prime minister said the crisis was created by an excess of public debt and that it will not be solved by creating even more. He says European Union member states already have implemented large stimulus packages that account for more than three percent of Europe's gross domestic product.

Mr. Fillon expressed confidence in U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's newest initiative to help stabilize the banking system by providing guarantees and low-interest loans to investors willing to purchase toxic assets from banks.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-03-24-voa1.cfm

From Time magazine


. . . . the cat is out of the bag. After behind the scenes conversations about the aggressiveness of the U.S. approach, the views of a number of American allies are now crystal clear — America is spending itself into a hole which it cannot get out of, and the nation is on a course which will eventually lead to socialism. . . .

. . . The American approach to saving its economy is radical compared to that of almost any other nation and that is not going to change. No other country can marshal the resources that the U.S. government can because of its unprecedented ability to raise money. And, the American presidency and control of both houses of the legislature are held by the same political party.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1887781,00.html


And again yesterday

French Prime Minister François Fillon is in Washington to garner support for tougher international financial regulations ahead of the April 2 Group of 20 economic summit in London. . . .

In a speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington on Monday, Mr. Fillon . . .

. . . .struck back at critics in the media and within the Obama administration who say Europe needs to spend more on government economic stimulus.

The French prime minister said the crisis was created by an excess of public debt and that it will not be solved by creating even more. He says European Union member states already have implemented large stimulus packages that account for more than three percent of Europe's gross domestic product. . . .



http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-03-24-voa1.cfm

Even the Chinese thnk he is too leftist.

Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said after a speech in New York that China would continue to buy Treasuries in spite of its misgivings about US finances. . . . .

Mr Luo, whose English tends toward the colloquial, added: “We hate you guys. Once you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion [$1,000bn-$2,000bn] . . .we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do.” . . .

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ba857be6-f88f-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html

[Blindeye101]

They don't want him.
They think he is spending too much money.
I am NOT kidding.


OK since Asia and Europe does not want him.

How about Africa?

Edit: Or better yet an island in the middle of no where?
He can be KING of that island. We will give him a print press so he can print ObamaBucks.

[spinach]

DOW +118

S&P +11.80

gold +1.20
oil 48.13

[spinach]

Financials are up right now

Bank of America +9.62%
JPM +5.55%
Citi +9.09%
Wells Fargo +6.7%
Morgan stanley +1.13%


it will be interesting to see if they hold-- or if another "mass sell" happens later on about 1:30 PM


DOW +113


GM is down 8%
Ford down 2.17%

[arubicus]

OK since Asia and Europe does not want him.

How about Africa?

Edit: Or better yet an island in the middle of no where?
He can be KING of that island. We will give him a print press so he can print ObamaBucks.

He can just paint rocks like they painted the obama coin here in the states. :))

[arubicus]

Financials are up right now

Bank of America +9.62%
JPM +5.55%
Citi +9.09%
Wells Fargo +6.7%
Morgan stanley +1.13%


it will be interesting to see if they hold-- or if another "mass sell" happens later on about 1:30 PM


DOW +113


GM is down 8%
Ford down 2.17%

Dow and Nasdaq leveled off. Resisting the 7640 level.