What happens if Iran says they have nukes...

[fredeasy]

...and have had them for a year? What would be the point of doing anything about it? Assuming they have some sort of proof other than actually testing the thing (I think that would force our hand) that would really limit our options. I mean if we didn't know about it for a year then finding them will be tough and risking a nuclear attack on ground forces would just not be worth it. More than anything it would take away the big rational I keep hearing "if we let Iran go nuclear you might as well kiss Israel/New York/Washington/America/the world goodbye". It would also be a gesture that they in fact, built a weapon for defensive use only. I mean think about it, they have American ground forces on 2 sides, an American carrier battle group on a 3rd side. You look at America's track record, Iraq-no nukes=invasion, North Korea-nukes=diplomacy. There there also happens to be the fact that they have Israel, India, Pakistan, Russia and China, all Nuclear powers and all right in the neighborhood.

Then again there is always the possibility that they come out and tell us they have gone nuclear and they did it 6 months ago. But instead of talking about nuclear weapons, they were talking about civilian nuclear power? Say they had been running a reactor and providing power to their grid for 6 months and could account for all material? Remember that each reactor is going to leave a different signature in it's waste so Iran giving it's waste to anyone would be as dumb as just nuking us outright.

Just and interesting scenario I thought about while reading a novel about an Islamic war in the mid east.

[starshipobama]

A great book to read before nuclear ww3 is "Primitive wilderness and suvival skills" by John and Geri McPherson. Youl learn how to make dugout conoes, bow and arrows, hunt and gather food, prepare animal skins, build thatched huts-assuming off course humanity is not completly obliterated. It will be 12,000 bc all over again. It would be better not to survive such a scenario. Iran would shift our foriegn policy as with the Soviet Union, actually, it would deter General Cigarchomper from starting ww3.:whistle:

[RickRhetoric]

Obama will pay them not to nuke us -- like Bush did to North Korea.

[ramblin_on]

...and have had them for a year? What would be the point of doing anything about it? Assuming they have some sort of proof other than actually testing the thing (I think that would force our hand) that would really limit our options. I mean if we didn't know about it for a year then finding them will be tough and risking a nuclear attack on ground forces would just not be worth it. More than anything it would take away the big rational I keep hearing "if we let Iran go nuclear you might as well kiss Israel/New York/Washington/America/the world goodbye". It would also be a gesture that they in fact, built a weapon for defensive use only. I mean think about it, they have American ground forces on 2 sides, an American carrier battle group on a 3rd side. You look at America's track record, Iraq-no nukes=invasion, North Korea-nukes=diplomacy. There there also happens to be the fact that they have Israel, India, Pakistan, Russia and China, all Nuclear powers and all right in the neighborhood.

Then again there is always the possibility that they come out and tell us they have gone nuclear and they did it 6 months ago. But instead of talking about nuclear weapons, they were talking about civilian nuclear power? Say they had been running a reactor and providing power to their grid for 6 months and could account for all material? Remember that each reactor is going to leave a different signature in it's waste so Iran giving it's waste to anyone would be as dumb as just nuking us outright.

Just and interesting scenario I thought about while reading a novel about an Islamic war in the mid east.


It is kind of hard to hide a nuclear test with todays technology and Iran would have to do more than claim they had nuclear weapons they would have to show some kind of proof. As soon as they do, however, it will mean the end of the Iranian government and many Iranian citizens after Israel, who definitely has a nuclear arsenal, obliterates Tehran and a good part of Iran with along with it. There is no way any Israeli government is going to let lunatics like Achmajinadad and Iranian mullahs get their hands on an atomic weapon and if by some chance they do then Israel will use any weapon in their arsenal to make sure they won't live long enough to use it. I have a hard time believing Iran would sit on such weapons for two days never mind a year and, trust me, the first nuke Iran gets will be targeted on Tel Aviv, the second New York, the third Washington DC, and so forth. Those people are nuts and don't care if they live or die just so they can take some infidels with them and enjoy their 72 virgins in paradise.

[fredeasy]

It is kind of hard to hide a nuclear test with todays technology and Iran would have to do more than claim they had nuclear weapons they would have to show some kind of proof. As soon as they do, however, it will mean the end of the Iranian government and many Iranian citizens after Israel, who definitely has a nuclear arsenal, obliterates Tehran and a good part of Iran with along with it. There is no way any Israeli government is going to let lunatics like Achmajinadad and Iranian mullahs get their hands on an atomic weapon and if by some chance they do then Israel will use any weapon in their arsenal to make sure they won't live long enough to use it. I have a hard time believing Iran would sit on such weapons for two days never mind a year and, trust me, the first nuke Iran gets will be targeted on Tel Aviv, the second New York, the third Washington DC, and so forth. Those people are nuts and don't care if they live or die just so they can take some infidels with them and enjoy their 72 virgins in paradise.

So if Iran had proof that they had been sitting on a weapon for some period of time and had not nuked Israel the second they got it like you think they will, you would still support an Israeli nuclear strike on them? I mean half the point of sitting on it would be to prove that they are using it for D and not O.

Do you know much about Iran or their version of Islam? The way you talk I really can't tell.

[BROEDERBOND]

...and have had them for a year? ....................

little to nothing...........an utter non-issue

[ramblin_on]

So if Iran had proof that they had been sitting on a weapon for some period of time and had not nuked Israel the second they got it like you think they will, you would still support an Israeli nuclear strike on them? I mean half the point of sitting on it would be to prove that they are using it for D and not O.

Do you know much about Iran or their version of Islam? The way you talk I really can't tell.

I don't see how they could hide the fact they had nuclear weapons for a year then just all of a sudden claim they have some and show proof. Nuclear weapons aren't something one can cobble up from a little plutonium and some spare parts from Home Depot. They would have to test one, at least the detonator, and I'll wager that there are so many satellites covering Iran right now that they couldn't hide a firecracker explosion never mind a detonator for a nuke even if the physics package wasn't installed. So your premise has a major flaw there and I never said I supported anything I just told you what will happen if and when Iran acquires any type of atomic weaponry. The leadership of Iran has made it quite plain that they would accept the destruction of their entire country to destroy Israel, hence no "mutually assured destruction" deterence that kept the US and the Soviet Union from a nuclear war, and the Israelis aren't going to let this happen without a fight.They feel they will have to stage a pre-emptive strike against Iran and her allies just to survive as a nation and I believe they will do so. I don't need to know anything about the way they practice their religion there all I need to know is that they "elected", and I use the term lightly, a physcopath who doesn't believe the holocaust happened, that all Jews in Israel must die, and that he is to be the one to kill all the Jews and receive his reward from Allah and a place in paradise. You don't seem to understand how small Israel is and the death and destruction that even one medium sized device will cause there and the Israelis determination that they will never, ever be slaughtered again without a lot of their enemies going with them. You are naive if you have this idea that Iran wants nukes for defense and MA will just sit on them unless attacked. If he won't use them the mullahs will replace him with someone who will.

[E7ALR]

So if Iran had proof that they had been sitting on a weapon for some period of time and had not nuked Israel the second they got it like you think they will, you would still support an Israeli nuclear strike on them? I mean half the point of sitting on it would be to prove that they are using it for D and not O.

Do you know much about Iran or their version of Islam? The way you talk I really can't tell.There is no invasion force perched on Iran's border or off their coast. her current US forces in Iraq are not large enough, even if paired will all of our forces in Afganistan. No other nation that borders them has such a force either.

I say this because Iran will not announce without it being to their advantage. Iran has "empire" aspirations. Iran seeks to make the Persian Gulf into its sole territorial waters. It aspires to be the central power in the region, with all others it's defacto vassal states. It views Hezbullah in Lebanon as its loyal vassal, Syria's Leadership as a weaker allied power and Hamas as a future Vassal state. It plans, as the Sunni Gulf States rightly fear, to dominate them, much in the way Saddam intended.

If Iran announces nuclear capabilities, it will be to intimidate, and will lead to nuclear war in the region.

[fredeasy]

I don't see how they could hide the fact they had nuclear weapons for a year then just all of a sudden claim they have some and show proof. Nuclear weapons aren't something one can cobble up from a little plutonium and some spare parts from Home Depot. They would have to test one, at least the detonator, and I'll wager that there are so many satellites covering Iran right now that they couldn't hide a firecracker explosion never mind a detonator for a nuke even if the physics package wasn't installed. So your premise has a major flaw there and I never said I supported anything I just told you what will happen if and when Iran acquires any type of atomic weaponry. The leadership of Iran has made it quite plain that they would accept the destruction of their entire country to destroy Israel, hence no "mutually assured destruction" deterence that kept the US and the Soviet Union from a nuclear war, and the Israelis aren't going to let this happen without a fight.They feel they will have to stage a pre-emptive strike against Iran and her allies just to survive as a nation and I believe they will do so. I don't need to know anything about the way they practice their religion there all I need to know is that they "elected", and I use the term lightly, a physcopath who doesn't believe the holocaust happened, that all Jews in Israel must die, and that he is to be the one to kill all the Jews and receive his reward from Allah and a place in paradise. You don't seem to understand how small Israel is and the death and destruction that even one medium sized device will cause there and the Israelis determination that they will never, ever be slaughtered again without a lot of their enemies going with them. You are naive if you have this idea that Iran wants nukes for defense and MA will just sit on them unless attacked. If he won't use them the mullahs will replace him with someone who will.

So you are willingly ignorant of Iran but have no problems acting like you speak from a position of authority? Their version of Islam would require the appearance of the 12 Imam for them to do anything like nuke Israel. I imagine it would take an event like Jesus appearing in the sky over America to tell us to nuke all our enemies so Jesus can come. Now imagine if Obama was the only one who saw Jesus and informed the nation he would soon be starting a nuclear war that would surly destroy the world. Even though we are a majority Christian nation with a majority of them believing we live in the end time, do you really think the American people would not revolt?

To reach critical mass the bomb would have to be complicated. Without the fissel material a bomb isn't super hard to make. As long as you understand the mechanics of the design (the atomic gun design would be the easiest IMO). That being said the chances of a device like actually starting the chain reation is small. As long as the charge is big enough though you are still slinging a baseball of ratioactive material at another block of radioactive material at high speed. At the very least you are going to get a dirty bomb that is going to make one hell of a big mess. On top of that we don't know the extent of the A. Q. Kahn incident. We know he gave them the centerfuge technology but we have no idea how much more they got.

Iran is not some backwater like Iraq. They have shopping malls and Tehran is quickly catching up to LA on plastic surgery. Iran has a democratically elected president who is about as popular as Bush was 5 months ago. Most of what he is going is to get his people to stop looking at the man behind the curtion (their crappy economy and government) and start looking at the huge, massive, horrible threat that America is. The actual supreme leader of Iran (the real president) is AGAINST the construction on nuclear weapons.

Iran has nothing to gain economicly, militaraliy, strategically or politically (remember what the people of Tehran did after 9/11? They held prayer vigals in the streets for our people). As I illistrated above Iran is not so crappy country run by a despotic dictator. They are a fairly modern country with a very backward system of government that works well enough for them.

Also I would really like to see how Israel is going to respond. A small scale attack is out of the question (like Iraq) because of Iran is expecting it. Israel would have to offically reveil it's nuclear program if they used a weapon and

As far as hiding it, as long as you didn't actually test the thing you could hide it from America (Mossad is a different story...). Remember these people once ran the largest empire in the known world, they are not dumb. They know our capabilities and you can only imagine what the Russian give them just to spite us and what the Chinese will give them for oil (remember the Chinese are currently supplying the groups carrying our genocide in Sudan, as long as you have oil they will give you whatever you need).

I have no idea what Israel will do but I with the US no longer giving a blank check I can only imagine the economic fallout after using a nuclear weapon. I would only hope Obama had have the stones Carter (I know, he is an idiot) did and let them know that big fat aide check is on the line if they shoot first and ask questions later. As much as Israel likes to think it is the biggest badass on the block, Us, the Russian, the Chinese and the EU are bigger.

[fredeasy]

There is no invasion force perched on Iran's border or off their coast. her current US forces in Iraq are not large enough, even if paired will all of our forces in Afganistan. No other nation that borders them has such a force either.

I say this because Iran will not announce without it being to their advantage. Iran has "empire" aspirations. Iran seeks to make the Persian Gulf into its sole territorial waters. It aspires to be the central power in the region, with all others it's defacto vassal states. It views Hezbullah in Lebanon as its loyal vassal, Syria's Leadership as a weaker allied power and Hamas as a future Vassal state. It plans, as the Sunni Gulf States rightly fear, to dominate them, much in the way Saddam intended.

If Iran announces nuclear capabilities, it will be to intimidate, and will lead to nuclear war in the region.

I will agree that we are in no way shape or form ready to send troops from Iraq and Astan pouring over the border. That being said if Iran nuked Israel you can bet your sweet behind that not only would be we project air power from all 4 sides (pretty sure we still have at least one base in Turkmenistan) but we would have a huge logistic advantage having troops and bases on both sides.

A ground invasion of Iran would be a nightmare. Iran is nothing like Iraq. Most of their populace is under 30 (thanks to the Iran, Iraq war), educated and pro-western. Not only that but Iranians don't have the tribalism we see so much in Arab peoples. They are united as one, Persian, Shia and Iranian. So not only can we face a well motivated, well trained military melting away into the civilian population, but this also just happens to be the first Islamic country to see a suicide bomber. A young Iranian boy picked up a satchel charge during a battle and charged a tank that was killing his fellow soldiers. He dove under the tank and detonated the charge (funny thing is that if I had left out the fact that he was Iranian and Muslim and said he was an American during WWII, most of you would call him a hero). That has now blossomed into entire military units who are suicide bombers, and keep in mind that Iranians are the original Aryans and many of them can easily pass for "white". So not only will main land America be facing actual threats but you can count on the Iranian navy to get at the very least 1 supertanker before we get them all. Anyone who knows anything about old Russian diesel subs knows that they are more than capable of running full silent into position and then firing before being detected. If they manage to sink just one of these tankers you can expect to see oil prices back over $100, if they manage to get a couple you can well expect to see a national panic because supply will be interrupted.

Overall we are talking about the pre-emptive attack of a fairly modern democracy who for has only ever shown signs of developing a peaceful nuclear power program. That attack would put our people and economy at risk. All this for the possible protection of an ally who gives us nothing in return but the receipt for the billions we give them, no strings attached.

I almost forgot to mention that you can expect Iran to launch their battery of "f*** it" missiles (like the nukes Israel has pointed at Mecca if they are ever overrun) at Israel, American forces in Iraq and Astan as well as American naval ships in the gulf. Assuming a few actually get near their targets we can expect this latest generation of PATRIOTs to try and take them down. I imagine we really won't see more than isolated damage over these though.

[Impenitent]

Israel would turn iran into a parking lot the second they get a nuke...

you really think the mossad isn't already closely monitoring (from the inside) the iranian nuclear operations?

the democrats may want to totally dismantle american intelligence, but israel is not that stupid

[Gengar]

All the Libwits/Dems will do is say the following: "Bush's fault!".

And that will be the end of it.

[Gengar]

Israel would turn iran into a parking lot the second they get a nuke...

No they won't.

[fredeasy]

Israel would turn iran into a parking lot the second they get a nuke...

you really think the mossad isn't already closely monitoring (from the inside) the iranian nuclear operations?

the democrats may want to totally dismantle american intelligence, but israel is not that stupid

I am really not sure. I mean Iranian intelligence might not be the best in the world but I would bet Moscow and Beijing are helping out. They know Israel wants in and so they will be watching very closely. I mean there really is no easy way for Israel on this. If they use force they will see larger losses because the facilities are so well defended. They can try and spy but the Iranians are going to be on SUPER high alert looking for spies. They do not have the element of surprise.

Remember who sends that big fat check to Israel every year so they can keep their socialist system running and their Mossad agents all over the world (remember Israel is number one on the list of number of spies in America).

[fredeasy]

All the Libwits/Dems will do is say the following: "Bush's fault!".

And that will be the end of it.

And the cons would blame Obama, it is the same game every day, back and forth.

[Mohawk5]

Israel would annihilate them.

No questions asked.

[fredeasy]

Israel would annihilate them.

No questions asked.

Here is another twist, if Israel goes nuclear will Russia glass Israel and start world war III?

[E7ALR]

Israel would annihilate them.

No questions asked.And just what money would be in it for Russia. Keeping Israel around feeds a nice arms trade market for the Russians.

[E7ALR]

So you are willingly ignorant of Iran but have no problems acting like you speak from a position of authority? Their version of Islam would require the appearance of the 12 Imam for them to do anything like nuke Israel. I imagine it would take an event like Jesus appearing in the sky over America to tell us to nuke all our enemies so Jesus can come. Now imagine if Obama was the only one who saw Jesus and informed the nation he would soon be starting a nuclear war that would surly destroy the world. Even though we are a majority Christian nation with a majority of them believing we live in the end time, do you really think the American people would not revolt?

To reach critical mass the bomb would have to be complicated. Without the fissel material a bomb isn't super hard to make. As long as you understand the mechanics of the design (the atomic gun design would be the easiest IMO). That being said the chances of a device like actually starting the chain reation is small. As long as the charge is big enough though you are still slinging a baseball of ratioactive material at another block of radioactive material at high speed. At the very least you are going to get a dirty bomb that is going to make one hell of a big mess. On top of that we don't know the extent of the A. Q. Kahn incident. We know he gave them the centerfuge technology but we have no idea how much more they got.

Iran is not some backwater like Iraq. They have shopping malls and Tehran is quickly catching up to LA on plastic surgery. Iran has a democratically elected president who is about as popular as Bush was 5 months ago. Most of what he is going is to get his people to stop looking at the man behind the curtion (their crappy economy and government) and start looking at the huge, massive, horrible threat that America is. The actual supreme leader of Iran (the real president) is AGAINST the construction on nuclear weapons.

Iran has nothing to gain economicly, militaraliy, strategically or politically (remember what the people of Tehran did after 9/11? They held prayer vigals in the streets for our people). As I illistrated above Iran is not so crappy country run by a despotic dictator. They are a fairly modern country with a very backward system of government that works well enough for them.

Also I would really like to see how Israel is going to respond. A small scale attack is out of the question (like Iraq) because of Iran is expecting it. Israel would have to offically reveil it's nuclear program if they used a weapon and

As far as hiding it, as long as you didn't actually test the thing you could hide it from America (Mossad is a different story...). Remember these people once ran the largest empire in the known world, they are not dumb. They know our capabilities and you can only imagine what the Russian give them just to spite us and what the Chinese will give them for oil (remember the Chinese are currently supplying the groups carrying our genocide in Sudan, as long as you have oil they will give you whatever you need).

I have no idea what Israel will do but I with the US no longer giving a blank check I can only imagine the economic fallout after using a nuclear weapon. I would only hope Obama had have the stones Carter (I know, he is an idiot) did and let them know that big fat aide check is on the line if they shoot first and ask questions later. As much as Israel likes to think it is the biggest badass on the block, Us, the Russian, the Chinese and the EU are bigger.You need to do a little better research on 12er dogma. The 12ers believe that the 12th Imam will only return once the world is thrown into chaos and fire. The 12ers think they can hasten the return by creating that chaos and fire, not by waiting for it.

[fredeasy]

You need to do a little better research on 12er dogma. The 12ers believe that the 12th Imam will only return once the world is thrown into chaos and fire. The 12ers think they can hasten the return by creating that chaos and fire, not by waiting for it.

The current supreme leader is waiting and he is the only one who will be pushing any buttons. Personally that is enough for me.

[fredeasy]

And just what money would be in it for Russia. Keeping Israel around feeds a nice arms trade market for the Russians.

Remember the oil embargo, imagine if it could be spun as America supporting the zionist who, for no reason nuked the innocent people of Iran. Chavez would be MORE than willing to hurt the US and make some extra green on the side. The Russians actually have more to gain from instability in that area because a lot of their oil is in the hands of state run companies so Russia gets rich as oil goes up.

[E7ALR]

Remember the oil embargo, imagine if it could be spun as America supporting the zionist who, for no reason nuked the innocent people of Iran. Chavez would be MORE than willing to hurt the US and make some extra green on the side. The Russians actually have more to gain from instability in that area because a lot of their oil is in the hands of state run companies so Russia gets rich as oil goes up.
Which means they send the Israelis a thank you note and flowers for knocking Iran and its oil production off the market and providing financial gain for Russia and the other oil exporters. So again, just what is the financial gain for the Russians to entice them into attacking Israel?

[E7ALR]

The current supreme leader is waiting and he is the only one who will be pushing any buttons. Personally that is enough for me.And you know this because he told you this directly?

IRGC actions for the last 27 years and their until recently clandestine nuclear program would indicate otherwise.

[fredeasy]

Which means they send the Israelis a thank you note and flowers for knocking Iran and its oil production off the market and providing financial gain for Russia and the other oil exporters. So again, just what is the financial gain for the Russians to entice them into attacking Israel?

Same reason we would attack Iran if they attack Israel.

[fredeasy]

And you know this because he told you this directly?

IRGC actions for the last 27 years and their until recently clandestine nuclear program would indicate otherwise.

What about the lack of evidence for weaponization or the full accountability of their fissile material?

[Free Speech]

The minute that declaration is made by Iran, Israel would make similar declaration. We may never be able to declare Mid East nuke free zone after that.

[E7ALR]

What about the lack of evidence for weaponization or the full accountability of their fissile material?The Iran attempted to purchase plans for an atomic bomb back under the Clinton Administration, in what was actually a CIA sting operation. They are believed to have purchased a Chinese Bomb design from Khan as part of his black market sale of centrifuge technology to them. The factt hat they were seeking bomb designs is proof of attempting to weaponize.

Iran refuses to allow access to several of their facilities, so a claim of "full accountability" is hardly credible.

You really need to try better.

[E7ALR]

The minute that declaration is made by Iran, Israel would make similar declaration. We may never be able to declare Mid East nuke free zone after that.We are not able to "declare" anywhere a nuclear free zone. Thats like declaring college campuses "gun free" and expecting it to restrain those who ignore mere unenforcable words.

[E7ALR]

Same reason we would attack Iran if they attack Israel.:)):)):)):))

Russia's only affection for Iran is for their money and their usefulness as an occasional foil against Europe and the US. The Russian people don't give a rats ass for the Iranian people or Government.

You really, really do need to do better.

[Jíbaro]

If Iran develops nukes, Damascus will be a mound of rubble in less than six months; btw, a crushed Syria equals a non-existent Hizbollah in Lebanon.
Gaza will become a parking lot, and Palestinians living in the West Bank will be sent packing.
The only way to ensure that Iran doesn't attack Israel with nukes is by making sure those nukes can't be deployed from anywhere except Teheran.

In fact, a nuclear Iran spells doom for its allies near Israel.

[Gengar]

The minute that declaration is made by Iran, Israel would make similar declaration. We may never be able to declare Mid East nuke free zone after that.

The US is a "murder-free" zone, being that murder is illegal. How's that idea working out? How will that same kind of idea work in the Middle East, keeping it nuclear-free? :snooty:

[Jíbaro]

The minute that declaration is made by Iran, Israel would make similar declaration. We may never be able to declare Mid East nuke free zone after that.

Actually, the day Iran announces this, that day a nuke will go off in the MidEast.
Much like saying hello to a hornet's nest by using a stick and knocking on the door.

[mark23]

Irans population is not pro western. That is a total myth.
http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/024254.php

Read the discription of what happened at Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeinis funeral
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2004/11/scenes-from-three-funerals-arafat-khomeini.html

Matter of fact it was the biggest funeral in human history
http://ivanarmiyanto.blogspot.com/2008/08/legend-of-iran-leader-ayatollah-seyyed.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy5Cp72A-hs

It is nearly a 100% love affair between the Irianian people and the government. It is shear stupidity on part of both the democrates and republicans for thinking there is some pro west movement.

[Gengar]

Who knows? Obama is already overwhelmed. He will probably extend that conga line into Thurs. morning.

[Chucky]

It will also be interesting to see if North Korea launches its "satellite".

They've already 'warned' us about shooting it down (since they're forbidden by treaty to do any sort of ballistic launching like this). But to me that sounds more like an excuse if it blows up on its own: "Ahhhh!!!! The Americans shot down our peaceful satellite!"