Dow:7465

[slackkeymike]

I mean, Obama is spending money faster than we can print it and the Dow keeps dropping? New 6 year low?

Swing low, sweet chariot

[george kaplan]

The Neo-Bolsheviks are destroying Capitalism right before our eyes.

Americans do ... nothing.

[coolhead]

At this point I agree I believe Obama is actually trying to push down the market to further his political agenda. Watching the last few weeks you have to ask your self is Obama stupid and can't manage the situation or is he very smart with an agenda that is not in line with what most assume it is? I don't believe Obama is stupid...I think we were stupid to not further understanding who he is and what he stood for prior to electing him. Have you asked your self what would be the end game of pushing the market and the economy down...with the speed with which he is moving there must be an ultimate goal. Forget about the individual plans and policy's what is it he is trying to achieve as his ultimate goal?

[daveNYC]

Or maybe the market is dropping because people are finally accepting that we will be in a recession for the rest of the year. Have you seen some of the numbers for what the S&P could end up at given historical multipliers for down markets and their current earnings outlooks?

[Droog]

Or maybe it's dropping because the government is dipping its hands in everything and people know they're just going to ruin it all.

Amtrak?

[coolhead]

Or maybe it's the government trying to push down the market in the hopes more and more people to look to the government to the "solution"...this is very empowering to the government until they push a little to hard.

[tinhat_cat]

Or maybe it's the government trying to push down the market in the hopes more and more people to look to the government to the "solution"...this is very empowering to the government until they push a little to hard.

I don't think there's a conspiracy to push the market down, I think it's just effects of the bursting credit/mortgage/real estate bubble finally coming home to roost. I think the incompetence is staggering. Like you said, they are either super smart or super stupid. Obama seems absolutely oblivious to the fact that he's not able to re-inflate the bubble (as they've done in the past), that's for darn sure, and his administration will continue to throw money at the problem until we are bankrupt. Well, we're already bankrupt, we'll just be more bankrupt I guess :(

[Drive Business]

Great time to buy.
If you think the market is undervalued due to governement manipulation, you should jump in.

Do any of you realize earnings are falling faster than prices?

[Jeemie]

The S&P 500 is now "correctly valued", at least according to historical standards.

But bear markets usually fall below historical standards before bottoming out, and with all the private, public, and corporate debt out there, I believe we are in unusual times.

We've broken through the 8,000 holding pattern of the last couple of months. My guess is that 5,000 is the next "temporary bottom" (which may be the real bottom- who knows?).

I think anyone trying to predict anything right now is just spitting in the wind.

[Droog]

I don't think there's a conspiracy to push the market down, I think it's just effects of the bursting credit/mortgage/real estate bubble finally coming home to roost. I think the incompetence is staggering. Like you said, they are either super smart or super stupid. Obama seems absolutely oblivious to the fact that he's not able to re-inflate the bubble (as they've done in the past), that's for darn sure, and his administration will continue to throw money at the problem until we are bankrupt. Well, we're already bankrupt, we'll just be more bankrupt I guess :(Their view is you're never really bankrupt if you can just print up more money. Such astute historians of economic history they are, they obviously think the laws of economics have changed in the past 250 years and our dollar is immune to the disease that killed the continental and the confederate.

And pay no attention to Zimbabwe.

[Old_Mil]

My guess is that 5,000 is the next "temporary bottom" (which may be the real bottom- who knows?).

I think 5,000 is the real bottom. If our economy follows the same trajectory that the Japanese economy did, on a percentage basis the Dow would be at 5,200 if it were to match the Nikkei's performance.

I say this knowing full well that at the time of its "disaster", Japan was a stronger economy than ours by any measurable aspect, with controlled levels of debt, a significant positive savings rate, and a significant current accounts surplus.

So could the Dow go lower? It's possible. The doom and gloomers say Dow 2,000 on the way down will meet Gold 2,000 on the way up. While I'm not quite that pessimistic, I say we have a ways to fall yet.

[slackkeymike]

How far can Obama encourage the markets?

Anybody think 6999 is possible?

Mike

[slackkeymike]

No takers?

[daveNYC]

I've heard 650 as a potential bottom for the S&P. Otherwise I have no idea. Considering that the DJIA contains BAC, C, and GM, where it ends up really depends on what symbols replace those if (OK, when) they go bankrupt.

[Drive Business]

I think the market will fall below 6,000.
I disagree with your premise that Obama or the government is driving prices down. As I said before, if you think the market is being manipulated down, you should buy.

[kriegrelic]

What we are witnessing is the end of capitalism as we know it. With all of the money being spent by Washington on bailoluts the Democrats are now on a mission to further entitlements, i.e. universal health care. And who will be paying for all this? Why businesses who will see more taxes in their future. Any ECON 101 student knows you don't raise taxes in a recession. Why can't the "Anointed One" see this? Maybe he was absent from class that day or maybe having lunch with Bill Ayers or Mr. Reszko.

[barik]

I think the market will fall below 6,000.
I disagree with your premise that Obama or the government is driving prices down. As I said before, if you think the market is being manipulated down, you should buy.

I'm probably going to be wrong, but I think 6000 seems like a good bottom. A lot of trading is psychological more than anything else, which is why markets tend to oscillate between nice round numbers. 7000, 6500, and so on.

[Old_Mil]

I mean, Obama is spending money faster than we can print it and the Dow keeps dropping? New 6 year low?

Swing low, sweet chariot

New 12 year low. I'm curious if we'll get to the 5,000s this week. Of course with Obama's 30something % hike in capital gains, people would be insane to leave money in the market.

[slackkeymike]

Tomorrow, market opens. Does it go South as regular Joes freak and yell "SELL!" or does it go North as bargain hunters pick up some deals?

I think we are approaching the event horizon of irrational behavior. Why do I think so? Because I am thinking of yelling "SELL!" (but I won't)

It may not happen in the morning, but we are going South of 7000. 50% of the market GONE (relative to highest point in Bush administration). Why are we not in a MASSIVE depression? Only diff is that it happened over spans of months, not days.

Mike

[BillyBobUSA]

Tomorrow, market opens. Does it go South as regular Joes freak and yell "SELL!" or does it go North as bargain hunters pick up some deals?

I think we are approaching the event horizon of irrational behavior. Why do I think so? Because I am thinking of yelling "SELL!" (but I won't)

It may not happen in the morning, but we are going South of 7000. 50% of the market GONE (relative to highest point in Bush administration). Why are we not in a MASSIVE depression? Only diff is that it happened over spans of months, not days.

Mike


The Great Depression rolled out the same way, in spurts and sputters.

5500 or so was the bottom in 97, if I recall correctly and before that it was around 4000 in like 94.

Some folks I know are talking like its a likelihood that the DOW will hit 4000.

I dont know; who knows?

One thing for sure; its not a good sign when people are trying to guess where the bottom is.

/gallows humor

[Marshall]

The Great Depression rolled out the same way, in spurts and sputters.

5500 or so was the bottom in 97, if I recall correctly and before that it was around 4000 in like 94.

Some folks I know are talking like its a likelihood that the DOW will hit 4000.

I dont know; who knows?

One thing for sure; its not a good sign when people are trying to guess where the bottom is.

/gallows humor

That's just the numbers of a bunch of optimists. I say we're eventually looking at 2,500 or 15% of the peak. It's still less than the 10% of the Great Depression, but our 15% will be inflated dollars.

[BillyBobUSA]

That's just the numbers of a bunch of optimists. I say we're eventually looking at 2,500 or 15% of the peak. It's still less than the 10% of the Great Depression, but our 15% will be inflated dollars.


Thanks for cheering me up, Marshall.

lol

[Marshall]

I'll make it even rosier. I think the new currency we'll have to worry about will be guns and bullets. When the hyperinflation caused by the massive government spending and backing of worthless securities and mortgages begins, the dollar will be practically worthless and the hungry masses will invade the suburbs and rural America looking for food. Growing your own food won't be enough. You'll have to protect it as well.

[daveNYC]

New 12 year low. I'm curious if we'll get to the 5,000s this week. Of course with Obama's 30something % hike in capital gains, people would be insane to leave money in the market.

You realize that in order to have to pay a capital gains tax, you first have to have capital gains.

[Marshall]

I think that Wall Street wants to find a reason to rally, but there's no good reason for any rally to be sustained. It will bounce around and then make new lows. It's not falling off a cliff in a panic, just rolling down the side of a mountain occasionally hitting rocks and shrubs which slow, but never stops the downward motion.

[slackkeymike]

Breakin into the 6000's!!

Maybe Obama's breaking of his campaign pledge of not signing pork bills into law did this?

Nah.

Mike

[BillyBobUSA]

breakin into the 6000's!!

Maybe obama's breaking of his campaign pledge of not signing pork bills into law did this?

Nah.

Mike

10:04 est... 6,918.29......-144.64..... -2.05%

Market tried to rally a bit earlier, then dived again.

[Ruzzty]

6836.81 -226.12 (-3.20%)

12:23pm EST

http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=$INDU

[BillyBobUSA]

6836.81 -226.12 (-3.20%)

12:23pm EST

http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=$INDU


Looks like it is bottoming out around 6740 and 6710 at least for today.

But who knows whats going to happen after 3 pm int hat last witching hour?

[coolhead]

You realize that in order to have to pay a capital gains tax, you first have to have capital gains.

That's like saying you need to have income in order to generate income tax revenue....that doesn't seem to bother the Obama economic team....

They'll just re construct "capital gains" to say "capital transaction" and whammo tax on investment not profit problem solved.

[BillyBobUSA]

OK, it is approximately 3 pm EST and the market looked like it was trying to come up around 2:30, but in the last hour has dropped more than 90 points. It is not looking like its going to pull up by 4.

This will leave markets around the world wondering, 'Where is the bottom?'

WHERE IS THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM WHEN YOU NEED THEM?

/sarcasm

[ChrisSpencer]

Or maybe the market is dropping because people are finally accepting that we will be in a recession for the rest of the year. Have you seen some of the numbers for what the S&P could end up at given historical multipliers for down markets and their current earnings outlooks?

S&P at 500 points would be pretty insane. Its about to break 700 right now. Dow at 6800, a reduction of over 50% from the high, keeping in line with last year's 40% reduction.

[ChrisSpencer]

No takers?

The Dow can dip below 6,000

[ChrisSpencer]

New 12 year low. I'm curious if we'll get to the 5,000s this week. Of course with Obama's 30something % hike in capital gains, people would be insane to leave money in the market.

Capital losses are a tax write-off. The key is to realise your losses ASAP since losses can only be written off when realised. Of course, looking t 40% reductions in portfolios that's way over the amount to be written off so there's no reason NOT to leave your money in the market right now.

Capital gains taxes are not even an issue right now for the majority of investors. I don't think anyone is realising that many capital gains.

[BillyBobUSA]

The Dow can dip below 6,000


Looks like we will see it around 6750 today with more panic available the rest of the week.

Dont call me surprised if the DOW ends this week under 6000.

[Celtic Pax]

6,777.23 at 3:53 P.M.

[BillyBobUSA]

6,777.23 at 3:53 P.M.


It will probably go lower after the calculate all the orders.

Wont know how low it will end up till about 4:20 methinks.

[XB70]

So, when is ****ball Obama going to address this disaster? :wall:

[coolhead]

So, when is ****ball Obama going to address this disaster? :wall:
I think Obama has made it clear that the "market" is not his concern...many argue this is his plan...kill capital free markets to then increase government and socialism/social engineering.

[BillyBobUSA]

6,763.29 @ 4:20 est

[coolhead]

What if this is not a panic or a response to AIG bail out but a slow steady unwind of large players out of the market...not selling to realize a smaller loss but an exit from the market!

[BillyBobUSA]

What if this is not a panic or a response to AIG bail out but a slow steady unwind of large players out of the market...not selling to realize a smaller loss but an exit from the market!


I would say that they are being smart.

[slackkeymike]

6763!!! A new 12 year low!! Way to go Obama!!!!!:clap::clap:

The market just LOVES Obama.

Mike

[BillyBobUSA]

6763!!! A new 12 year low!! Way to go Obama!!!!!:clap::clap:

The market just LOVES Obama.

Mike


I dont think one can fairly blame Obama for what the market is doing now in response to 8+ years of acumulated derivitive fiascos.

[coolhead]

I dont think one can fairly blame Obama for what the market is doing now in response to 8+ years of acumulated derivitive fiascos.

No it is not fair to hang derivative fiasco on Obama...it is fair to hang the socialization of our economy and the effect that and his programs are going to have on it on him. Derivatives you can hang on Rubin.

[slackkeymike]

I dont think one can fairly blame Obama for what the market is doing now in response to 8+ years of acumulated derivitive fiascos.

Oh, it is his fault. Capitalism is a shy beast. And Obama is creating a place that Capitalism fears most.

Obama has no idea what he is doing.

[coolhead]

Oh, it is his fault. Capitalism is a shy beast. And Obama is creating a place that Capitalism fears most.

Obama has no idea what he is doing.

I agree:

"capitalism is a shy beast..."

I disagree with:

"ombama has no idea what he is doing" I think he is following a plan and his agenda and I think he could care less what the market does or even benefits from it's down turn...which to me is much more scary.

[slackkeymike]

Amazing. Since this thread started, the Dow has lost almost 1000 points. Keep on talking Obama.

Mike

[Ruzzty]

3:45pm EST

Dow -316.05 (6,559.79)

S&P -33.64 (679.23)

[European]

The Neo-Bolsheviks are destroying Capitalism right before our eyes.


You mean the Obama Administration with "Neo Bolsheviks"?
If so you should definitly READ some books about Communism,....and Obama is not a communist nor is he a socialist,really he just simply isnt....


I mean, Obama is spending money faster than we can print it and the Dow keeps dropping? New 6 year low?

Question:What should they do instead?II mean MORE Tax Cut's wont be the solution...

[coolhead]

You mean the Obama Administration with "Neo Bolsheviks"?
If so you should definitly READ some books about Communism,....and Obama is not a communist nor is he a socialist,really he just simply isnt....




Question:What should they do instead?II mean MORE Tax Cut's wont be the solution...

You may want to read about how the "bolsheviks" took over Russia...it started with nationalizing banks....sound familiar.

[European]

Yeah thanks I read lots of books....
I mean you can't seriously say that just through nationalazing banks Obama will leed the USA to communism.If it would be that easy...

[coolhead]

Yeah thanks I read lots of books....
I mean you can't seriously say that just through nationalazing banks Obama will leed the USA to communism.If it would be that easy...

Ok the government has controlling interest in our largest banks, insurance, auto, and has very large investments in our investment banks and wants to control health care.....so what does socializing banks or car industry look like?

[European]

Ok the government has controlling interest in our largest banks, insurance, auto, and has very large investments in our investment banks and wants to control health care.....so what does socializing banks or car industry look like?


Looks like they're trying to save them?!
WHY would youre government want to leed you to communism/socialism?!

[slackkeymike]

Question:What should they do instead?II mean MORE Tax Cut's wont be the solution...

Spend less (asside from USEFUL stimulus)

I predict that within 6 market days the market will break into the 5's

[European]

Spend less (asside from USEFUL stimulus)

I predict that within 6 market days the market will break into the 5's



What do you mean with "SPEND LESS"?

I havent heared a good idea what to do in this crisis from the republicans yet,could be because they only waisting time about saying how baaaaaad and how much of a socialsit/communist Obama is...
but correct me if I'm wrong cause I live in Europe and can't always read all the news from America.

[slackkeymike]

What do you mean with "SPEND LESS"?

I havent heared a good idea what to do in this crisis from the republicans yet,could be because they only waisting time about saying how baaaaaad and how much of a socialsit/communist Obama is...
but correct me if I'm wrong cause I live in Europe and can't always read all the news from America.

Its a difficult problem, fraught with politics. It is estimated that 12% of the stimulus bill has anything to do with stimulus. Rob Emanuel is quoted as saying "never let a good crisis go to waste". Coupled with the panic and the popularity of the President, Obama et al have rammed through so much pork as the world has never seen. 40 years of pent up desire to spend released in one bill. The republicans are on board with the notion of "stimulus", but not the rediculous spending that is happening. And on top of it all, Republicans have no voice or power in the House or in the Senate. This is Obama's party and no conservatives are allowed.

[slackkeymike]

What do you mean with "SPEND LESS"?.


BTW, tell us how much better your health care system is than ours. Give me some examples. I am serious. We are about to adopt the same thing, and in part, because Britain and Canada have such great systems. Could you please compare and contrast?

Sorry if my question sounded snooty, I did not mean it to be so.. I really want to know

[European]

And on top of it all, Republicans have no voice or power in the House or in the Senate. This is Obama's party and no conservatives are allowed.Well I guess this is how a democracy works.You know if people would have wanted another year of republican party leeding they would have all voted for MCCain.:arrow:Well as we all know they didnt...



t is estimated that 12% of the stimulus bill has anything to do with stimulus.Where did you get that number from ,I want sources!

BTW, tell us how much better your health care system is than ours. Give me some examples. I am serious. We are about to adopt the same thing, and in part, because Britain and Canada have such great systems. Could you please compare and contrast?


Well since I'm from Germany I cant tell you bout the systems Canada or Great Britain got.I can only tell you sth. about the Frensh and German system.(because I live very very close to France)So if you want to hear about both I can tell you...But I think another thread would be good for this topic.If you want to know just post a new one!



And you didnt answer my questions....

[slackkeymike]

Well I guess this is how a democracy works.You know if people would have wanted another year of republican party leeding they would have all voted for MCCain.:arrow:Well as we all know they didnt...



Where did you get that number from ,I want sources!




Well since I'm from Germany I cant tell you bout the systems Canada or Great Britain got.I can only tell you sth. about the Frensh and German system.(because I live very very close to France)So if you want to hear about both I can tell you...But I think another thread would be good for this topic.If you want to know just post a new one!



And you didnt answer my questions....


This is a not so good example of sources, they were flying around here before the bill got passed:

http://www.metimes.com/Security/2009/02/09/walkers_world_the_flawed_stimulus_bill/5f6c/

Mike

[slackkeymike]

Well I guess this is how a democracy works.You know if people would have wanted another year of republican party leeding they would have all voted for MCCain.:arrow:Well as we all know they didnt...
.

We do not have a democracy. We have a Representative Republic. Least ways, we used to. A democracy, is however, where we are headed in many ways which is indeed sad.

[European]

We do not have a democracy. We have a Representative Republic. Least ways, we used to. A democracy, is however, where we are headed in many ways which is indeed sad.



Democracy is a form of government in which power is held directly or indirectly by citizens under a free electoral system.Well I guess thats the case here..or at least I hope so :rolleyes:
Sometimes I'm not sure about it especially not sure about that for the last 8 years....


Oh look the article you linked me to says this:

The cost remains very high indeed, coming as it does on top of the Bush administration's budget deficit of $1.2 trillion in its final fiscal year. The accumulated deficits make the Bush administration the most Keynesian government of all time, with unfunded stimulus after stimulus, whose main achievement was to feed the double bubble of housing and that got the world economy into this mess.
intresting insight...:eh:


Well actually we could argue about this issue for like 1 Million Years and not arriving anywhere.So i guess time will show was right and who wasnt:exclaim:
(If you like to discuss further okay,just from my POV this leads us to nowhereland)

[Long Island Bob]

7465 bump

[European]

7465 bump


At least we dont live in Iceland....

[RobbieK]

Barak Obama is not working out. It is time to ask him to resign. Sounds extreme? Well, it isn't. How long will Americans wait before they take up arms and take back the country? In my opinion, not long. So, it is time to ask Obama to resign.